Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 072130
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
230 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Light snow/flurries pretty much gone now and skies on the way to
clearing. This along with light winds and snow cover will be
optimal for a very cold night across the CWA. There will not be
much in the way of a breeze but with temperatures falling below
zero across the CWA very low to dangerous wind chills are
expected...lowest over the Laramie Valley. Have posted a wind
chill warning for the Laramie Valley and surrounding areas with a
wind chill advy for much of the rest of the CWA. Far western
areas and that area from about Cheyenne to Kimball marginal and
brief so have opted to omit that area for the time being.

Dry and a little warmer across the CWA Thursday but still chilly
with the cold surface high anchored over the plains. Temperatures
then become tricky Thursday night as the cold surface airmass will
retreat eastward thus lows across most of southeast Wy should
occur Thursday evening with temperatures then rising overnight as
warmer downslope flow occurs. Friday much warmer across southeast
Wyoming into the southwest part of the Panhandle but the colder
air may hold north of a line from east of Douglas to Alliance.
Otherwise should see an uptick in snow showers over the western
mtns Friday as moisture in westerly upper flow rides up the facing
slopes. This will persist through Saturday...possibly moving out
over the plains as an upper shortwave moves across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

The 12Z GFS is around 18-24 hrs faster with the shortwave trough
passage on Saturday, bringing it through during the day.  The 12Z
ECMWF shows the trough axis moving overhead by midday Sunday.  It
appears that the Euro is the outlier as both the NAM and Canadian
models are similar to the GFS.  Thus, would expect breezy to windy
conditions from Saturday into Sunday morning over much of the region
with a good chance of orographic snows across the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Ranges.  Much of the snow should end by late Sunday over the
mtns with highs in the 30s across lower elevations.  There is quite
a bit of spread as we head into early next week.  Northwesterly flow
aloft will be in place, with the CWA susceptible to fronts coming in
from the northeast.  Another cold intrusion could occur by Tuesday,
however temps are not expected to be as cold as with this arctic
blast.  Periods of snow will occur early next week over the mtns
with moist west to northwest flow and the upper jet overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Light snow and ifr vis will continue at SNY for the next few
hours. Skies will clear by later this aftn into the evening.
Northwest winds will gust to 20 kts at times over the Panhandle
through the aftn.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

No concerns through the weekend with cold to cool temperatures
keeping conditions non-critical.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Thursday
     for WYZ101-102-104-106>109.

     Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Thursday
     for WYZ103-105-110-113>115.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Thursday
     for NEZ002-003-019>021-055-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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