Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 070616
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1116 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO EXTEND THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...AND TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENTLY SEVERAL WYDOT SITES AREA SUSTAINED IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE MAIN DECREASES WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FOR TODAY...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS OUR PRIMARY WIND PRONE
CORRIDORS LOOK ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THIS WIND
HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALL DAY ALONG INTERSTATE
25 BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND WHEATLAND DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ON THE ROADS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE PATCHY DUE TO A
DIMINISHING SNOW PACK IN THOSE AREAS.

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WINDY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WILL
HELP WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS DAWES...BOX BUTTE...AND
NRN SIOUX COUNTY BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE
UPGRADED AS WELL DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 850MB WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 KNOTS AND GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LATER COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND CONCERNS ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MILD TEMPS AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM TUES THROUGH FRI WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE CWA.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT BREEZINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE 850 MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT OF 35-50 METERS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 0-3C...HIGHS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EACH DAY.  THIS WILL BE A NICE
BREAK FROM THE COLD START TO THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIDESPREAD
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT


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