Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 282215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FCSTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7
PM.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE ARE
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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