Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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279
FXUS65 KCYS 102329
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
429 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. MILD/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -2 AND +2 DEG C OVER THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
HOURS WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER
THE WIND CORRIDORS WITH 40 KNOT H7-H8 FLOW AND THE 700 MILLIBAR CAG-
CPR GRADIENT REMAINING ABOVE 40 METERS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SHOULD FORCE
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT VEERING SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST/UPSLOPE BY MID AFTN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. MAINTAINED THE
IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE ANTICIPATION
OF LOW STRATUS. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POPS
ATTM. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE
0C TO -10C LAYER BENEATH DRY MID LEVELS ON FRI NIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG A SIDNEY-ALLIANCE LINE. NO
OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING THOUGH WITH MINIMAL SENSIBLE
EFFECTS ON OUR FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD PER
THICKNESSES TRENDS.

SUNDAY...COOLER DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID
FEBRUARY. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

MONDAY...ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. WILL SEE A DECREASE IN
OROGRAPHIC SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS
MOISTURE ALOFT DECREASES. DRY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE. LIKELY A WINDY DAY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST WINDS. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY
MOVES OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND THE AIRMASS MODERATES. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH MAINLY
40S WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.

WYOMING TAFS...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT CHEYENNE THROUGH 02Z.
AFTER 15Z...GUSTS OF 25 TO 28 KNOTS AT ALL SITES.

NEBRASKA TAFS...GUSTS TO 26 KNOTS AT CHADRON THROUGH 02Z.
AFTER 15Z...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
RESIDUAL SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



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