Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 141812
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1212 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TODAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WHERE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 1 TO 4 DEGREES.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO REINFORCE THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES AND WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM
RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE...WE MAY SEE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THAT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...COOLER DAY ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
RETURN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS HINDERING THE WARM UP. CONTINUED
DRY WITH LIMITED LIFT...DESPITE ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WARMING TREND DEVELOPS AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES CLOSER TO WYOMING...AND WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DRYING AND
WARMING AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 10 CELSIUS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. GFS SHOWING 500MB HEIGHT RISES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 30 METERS AND 700MB TEMPERATURES
OF +10 TO +12C. LOOKING AT MID 40 LOWS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH LOW 50S FOR LOWS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RIDGE STAYS OVER EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AFTER THIS
HAPPENS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS 700MB WINDS DO
INCREASE OUT WEST TO AROUND 30KTS.

GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO
AND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. DID INCREASE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BE THROUGH THE
AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR CHADRON AND ALONG
MUCH OF THE PINE RIDGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
TO MVFR. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IFR TO MVFR
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MAY HOLD INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME PLACES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS DUE TO PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND
WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





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