Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 230243
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
843 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH EASTERN ID. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WY AND WESTERN
NE. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS. FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME ECHOS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MAINLY
VIRGA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
JET. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOMORROW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
AFFECT VIEWING THE OF SOLAR ECLIPSE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WINDY IN THE WEST AND BREEZY IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. IF ANYTHING CLOUD COVER MAY
SOMEWHAT INHIBIT STRONGER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND
EC HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA ALTHOUGH THE EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO
REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERAL WEEK BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF
OCTOBER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 3 TO 6
INCHES MIGHT BE A GOOD BET FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
AT THIS TIME BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EC IS MUCH MORE OPTIMIST WITH ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR
NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NE...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT







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