Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 160325
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
825 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

VERY TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LATEST FOG/STRATUS
SATELLITE LOOP AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LLVL STRATUS DECK
DRAPED FROM EAST CENTRAL WY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ALLIANCE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND HIGH-RES MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST BLYR MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD VIA LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HANG ON
TO THE STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. SO DESPITE SEVERAL INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW...THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. OPTED TO RAISE
LOWS A FEW DEGREES. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE HRRR/RAP YET IN CASE
CLOUDS ACTUALLY DO CLEAR OUT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH THE
ENHANCED NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
HIGH PLAINS WAS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
REGIONAL RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND HIGHWAY WEB CAMS
REVEALED SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. RECENTLY CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WEATHER
ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE 20S AND
30S...AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...WITH A
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY.
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
SHORT TERM.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. DUE TO FRESH SNOW
PACK...TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAVMOS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS AND
VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
COULD DROP TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
WIND COMPONENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 20S AND 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND CLOUD COVER
KEEPING MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. SOME
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL FOR
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...RATHER MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS. SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT...THOUGH WITH PERIODS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

SUNDAY...WINDY PERIOD DEVELOPS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS INCREASING

MONDAY...EVEN WINDIER AS THE PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL QUITE WINDY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

VFR PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AT CHEYENNE...CHADRON...ALLIANCE...
SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
COVER...COOL TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...SAR
FIRE WEATHER...MJ



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