Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 190551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1151 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 918 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Increasing coverage of banded precipitation across southern 2/3 of
CWA this evening per regional radars, with PoPs nudged upward
10-20 percent. Laramie was reporting light snow, with FE Warren
AFB a rain/snow mix. Temperatures were in the 30s along and west
of I-25. The bulk of the precipitation will occur before midnight,
followed by a steady decrease in coverage overnight. Rain may mix
with snow across western Nebraska after midnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Quiet weather across the CWA now with much less wind. Area radars
showing some light showers beginning to increase around the Wy/Co
border ahead of a shortwave currently over northern Nevada. This
will continue to move east overnight and should increase areal
coverage of showers over much of the CWA...aided by some lift from
the left exit region of an upper jet nosing southeast across
western Wyoming.  Rain still looks to change to snow showers over
the mtns later tonight while over the plains a mixture of rain and
wet snow possible later tonight into Weds morning. Any
accumulating snow should stay confined to the higher mtns.

Scattered showers expected to persist over the plains Weds as
shortwave energy continues to move by and some jet dynamic still
in the area.  A cool day with max temps in the 40s to mid 50s.
Chilly conditions Weds night as any lingering pcpn ends in the
evening and skies clear. Dry and mild for Thursday as upper
ridging shifts into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

All medium range models show a benign weather pattern across the
area through the weekend and into early next week. Not many
forecast concerns during this time frame due to a broad ridge
axis aloft along the spine of the Rocky Mountains...extending
northward from New Mexico/Colorado towards the Canadian border.
The upper level flow eventually backs into the southwest next week
as a strong Pacific storm system moves onshore. This will likely
be when the next chance of precipitation will sometime
between next Tuesday and next Thursday depending on how the
timing differences are resolved over the next several days.
Otherwise...daytime temperatures will return to the 60`s Friday
through this weekend west of I-25...with 70`s across the high
plains. A few lower elevation locations may reach 80 Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will trend cooler early next week as some
Pacific energy will begin to push across Wyoming...but high
temperatures will still be above average for this time of the year.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The band of rain/snow showers will continue to push east during
the course of the night and should exit the Southern Panhandle by
mid morning. Tomorrow the models are showing the potential for
afternoon showers due to weak instability. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will be rule during the next 24hrs. However, a brief
period of MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out in those heavier
bands of showers overnight.


Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

No concerns seen through early Friday with cool temperatures.
Scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers expected tonight
into Wednesday. Concerns may increase towards the weekend as
warmer and breezier weather looks to return.




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