Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 221132
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
532 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BUT HAVING
SOME TROUBLE SURVIVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS SO FAR. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AROUND THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING THEN TURN MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AN IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT A TONGUE OF BETTER INSTABILITY/CAPES 500-100 J/KG/
LOOKS TO NOSE UP OUT OF COLORADO INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WITH MARGINAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MAINLY DRY AND
WARM TUESDAY THOUGH ANOTHER MODEST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THAT AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND AS WELL...CLIMBING TO
+14C AND EVEN +16C ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS UP FROM +10C TO +12C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
AND ALMOST SUMMER LIKE WITH 90S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 80S OUT
WEST. GOING TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WELL WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO NEVADA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GFS MUCH FASTER...BY ROUGHLY
12 TO 18 HOURS ON THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. NEW ECMWF
SLOWER AND HAS THE LOW NOT MOVING INTO NEVADA UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS SHOWERS MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DID A BLEND OF THE TWO
MODELS FOR POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. SHOULD BE INTO THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE HERE BY SUNRISE. FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR SHOWING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS. SO
FLIGHT OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY IMPACTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
THE MOST PART. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
AREAS THEN LESS WIND ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDS. SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTRMS TODAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE





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