Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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802
FXUS65 KCYS 031135
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SOME OF THE NICEST AND WARMEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ON TAP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD TOO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES
TODAY AND RIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO AROUND
70S FOR MUCH OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE SOME 80S WILL
BE FOUND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 10C BY THE AFTN. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASING DURING
THE EVENING OVER WY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THAN THURSDAY BY THE EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST WY. SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL BE A MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT
WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IMPRESSIVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.5 INCHES...SO COULD
SEE HEAVY RAIN. THE CLOSED LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO COLORADO BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN TURNING WETTER LATE FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML



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