Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 302114
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
314 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES AT 1PM THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
INTO THE MID 20S AND LOW 30S THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING.

GFS SHOWING A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT TUESDAY WITH 700MB WINS
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
400MBS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE
AND LOW 70S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN 30 MPH WINDS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DID INCLUDE FWZ
302 AND 306 INTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WILL BE ISSUING THIS
AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT HAS ACCELERATED FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING TO MOVE INTO
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AT 12Z AND THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z. GOING TO BE WINDY...BUT WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES...DO THINK FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WED NIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON THURS. THE BEST QG ASCENT AND
UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. KEPT POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER FROM THURS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING...WHICH THEN TAPER OFF
TO 20-30 PERCENT ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER. COULD BE LOOKING
AT ADVISORY AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) ALONG INTERSTATE 80. IF THE
UPPER LVL SYSTEM WERE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH OVER FUTURE
RUNS...THEN WE WOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA. LLVL TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SNOW WOULD END BY LATE FRI
MORNING. RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST
COAST. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW BREEZY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20-30 KTS AT MANY OF THE SITES THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
WILL COME DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING IN FWZ 310 THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALLOWING GUSTY WINS TO MIX DOWN FROM
HIGH ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
FWZS 302 AND 306 INTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY. RELIEF
IN SITE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301-302-306-310.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ310.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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