Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 281713
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1113 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Today...Will need to monitor for possible fog inclusion in the
forecast early this morning as temperature and dewpoint spreads have
narrowed to 2 degrees at Alliance...5 degrees at Kimball and 3
degrees at Sidney.

Best low and mid level theta-e ridging occurs this afternoon across
Colorado, closer to where the upper low continues to spin. With best
low level convergence noted to our south, believe most of the
showers and thunderstorms will stay across Colorado, though perhaps
isolated storms possible over the mountains. Guidance temperatures
close and have compromised for maximum temperatures.

Tonight...Clearing skies will help make for another cool overnight
for late August.

Monday...Low and mid level winds turn easterly and with additional
afternoon cloud cover, expect a cooler day and have compromised
again with NAM and GFS MOS high temperatures. Believe the NAM is
spreading showers too far to the north again and will keep it dry
aside from isolated mountain thunderstorms, which matches well with
our neighbors to our south.

Monday night...Another cool night with clearing skies.

Tuesday...Weakening upper trough moves into eastern Colorado with
low level east winds keeping clouds and relatively cooler
temperatures for our counties as guidance temperatures suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Not a whole lot going on the long term as we stay under high
pressure for most of the time. Ridge axis moves east Thursday and
we should see winds becoming more westerly and increasing in
speeds. Could be fire weather concerns with these increasing wins
Thursday through the weekend. Really strong winds Saturday as GFS
shows 700mb winds increasing to 40kts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR expected through the period with just some mid/high clouds
mainly around the Colorado border.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Fortunately, despite low humidities this afternoon, winds are
expected to peak this morning and then decrease in the afternoon,
thus alleviating fire weather concerns. Recovering and improving
humidities the next few days along with increased cloud cover will
limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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