Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 160843
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN WYOMING
THIS MORNING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS STRATUS
WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODILE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. NOTHING REAL CLOSE TO WYOMING FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS WYOMING. SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AS GFS 700MB WINDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THEN EASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WE SHOULD BE
OK FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EACH DAY. WINDIEST DAY MAY BE THURSDAY
WHERE WE COULD MIX DOWN 25KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY 550MBS.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +14C OVER
CARBON COUNTY AND +12C OVER THE PANHANDLE. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH WARMEST DAY THURSDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S IN THE
PANHANDLE WITH LOW 80S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
MOVEMENT AND TIMING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO CARBON
COUNTY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIDLVL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO ON THURS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700-500MB MOISTURE
INCREASES ON FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE REGION (IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO). THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRI
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT SURGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND THEN WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SAT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY NICE WITH WEAK WINDS AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER AT
INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STILL NO GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED OTHER
THAN ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A FAIRLY BENIGN PERIOD UPCOMING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE ONE QUESTION MARK WILL BE AT KAIA...WHERE THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK PUSHING IN BETWEEN 11-13Z.
AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS OCCURRING...SO HAVE JUST HINTED
WITH A SCT025 CLOUD DECK. THIS MAY BACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL...BUT DONT EXPECT IT
TO MAKE IT TO KBFF...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. OTHER THAN THAT SHOULD
BE A MOSTLY SKC DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHUNK OF MID-LEVEL
SCT200-250 MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...FUELS IN MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES
ARE REPORTED NON-CRITICAL...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB




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