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000
FXUS65 KCYS 061003
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
303 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  THE LLVL GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE CAG-CPR GRADIENT AROUND 45 METERS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN DECREASING BELOW 30 METERS BY SUNSET.  DONT THINK
WINDS WILL GET ANY STRONGER AT ARL THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 50 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -1C.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT LESS BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WEAK CAA BEHIND IT.  AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY.  ANY CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST...ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN
LACKS MOISTURE OR ANY WORTHWHILE DISTURBANCES. NORTHWEST FLOW ON
MONDAY-TUESDAY WILL BE SHUNTED EAST AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS
PASSES THRU ON WEDNESDAY. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING RIDGE AXIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT FOR THURSDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE ON FRIDAY AS THE ECMWF FAVORS A
DEVELOPING REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WRN U.S. MEANWHILE THE GFS
AMPLIFIES RIDGING UPSTREAM WHICH WILL INDUCE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE
AGAIN OVR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 40S AND 50S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 50S AND 60S OVR THE ERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND H7
TEMPERATURES PROGD 3-6C. IF REALIZED...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 60S OVR THE ERN PLAINS...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
SPOTS APPROACHING 70F. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICALLY BREEZY AREAS OVR
THE WIND CORRIDOR SEE LESS WINDS THAN USUAL GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. WEST
WINDS WILL TURN BREEZY GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS 16-02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF 30-40 PERCENT.  BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF