Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 100502
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1000 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 456 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Allowed Red Flag Warning for FWZ 312-313 to expire at 5 PM. Issued
a Fire Weather Watch for same zones from 11 AM through 5 PM Sunday
for low humidity and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Main concerns in the near term are with higher wildfire danger
across the southern 2/3 of the western Nebraska Panhandle through
late this afternoon in areas that have seen little if any
precipitation over the past couple of weeks. See fire weather
section in this discussion for details. Otherwise, breezy and dry
conditions expected the rest of this afternoon with not much really
to talk about for the rest of the weekend as a large ridge of high
pressure parked over the western states keeps any passing upper
level systems to our north and east, as well as any deep cold air
intrusions. Winds for tomorrow look to be lighter than what we are
seeing today, although the models are pointing to 30 to 40 mph winds
in the wind prone gap areas (Bordeaux, Arlington).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Over the next couple of days we expected to see the large upper
ridge to our west retreat a bit westward allowing a weak upper
system and modifying cold front to move down east of the Laramie
Range on Monday, with a stronger fast moving clipper system still
being advertised in the 12Z runs moving down into Nebraska on
Wednesday (with a slightly stronger cold front). Neither of those
systems through Wednesday look to produce any precipitation given
very limited moisture. Our next chance at precipitation looks to
be setting up for late Friday into Saturday as the upper ridge to
the west weakens allowing a larger upper system to move down
across our area. Right now we are carrying snow chances starting
Friday night, but nothing that looks overly significant impact-
wise right now given the progressive,fast moving character of the
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR. Westerly surface winds 7-15 KT late tonight, becoming breezy
from west-northwest with gusts to 25 KT east of Laramie Range after
16Z Sunday. Winds will diminish somewhat around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Will maintain the Red Flag Warning across the southern 2/3 of
the western Nebraska Panhandle through 5 PM. RH values most
reporting stations in zones where the fuels are in yes status
running 10 to 15 percent with winds 30 to 40 mph. Another day of
low humidity expected tomorrow although winds will be a bit
lighter most areas, so will hold off on any Fire Weather Watches
for Sunday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MAJ
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...JG



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