Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 212044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
244 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and
evening, mainly across the high plains of southeast Wyoming into the
far western Nebraska panhandle. Storm coverage is still the question
mark as the degree of capping is not clear, but any development will
have a good chance of being severe. Good surface heating w/ temps in
the 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will
continue to support MLCAPES to 2000 J/kg along the I25 corridor. SPC
Mesoscale Analysis shows 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear, mainly
due to considerable veering in the lowest 3 km. The mesoscale env is
favorable for supercells with large hail/damaging winds. Llvl jet is
progged to ramp up after 00z with the GFS showing H8-H85 flow in the
neighborhood of 40-50 knots. The models show this resulting in 0-1km
helicity values between 200-400 m2/s2, so an isolated tornado or two
is definitely not out of the question as long as storms are surface-
based. LCLs are not ideal, but are low enough around 1500 m.

Severe weather threat should end around 03z or shortly after. We may
have some fog from Cheyenne-Torrington and points southeast as moist
southeast flow keeps the boundary layer saturated. Surface winds may
stay high enough to limit fog development, but there should be a bit
of a window between 06z-12z where we should see at least patchy fog/
drizzle. Strong upper low will sweep over the CWA Sunday along w/the
surface fropa. Slightly cooler temperatures and drier low-levels are
expected to limit instability enough so that severe weather will not
be a major concern; however, with a 40-50 kt 500 hpa jet overhead, a
stronger storm is definitely possible. Still, we anticipate isolated
to widely scattered convection across the CWA in the right rear quad
of a 100+ kt H25 jet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Cooler...but active weather pattern in the extended with
rain/thunder chances just about everyday.

Starting off Sunday night...upper shortwave moves east of the CWFA
after 00Z with showers ending in the Panhandle shortly after 03Z.
700MB temperatures drop down close to freezing sunday night into

Next chance for convection looks to be Monday afternoon/evening
with the approach of our next trough tracking into Utah. This
should mainly be confined to the mountains and could fall as snow
given the cold 700mb temperatures.

Do not see a warming trend in 700mb temperatures until Tuesday
afternoon and evening when the GFS forecast +4C over southeast

Next impactful rainfall appears to be Thursday as both the GFS and
ECMWF track a fairly strong shortwave through central Colorado
that tracks into western Nebraska as a closed low.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Thunderstorms could be a problem this afternoon as stratus erodes
east of the Laramie Range. Looking at the latest HRRR...its
difficult to nail down which airports will see these decided to go with VCTS wording in TAFs for the
panhandle and here at KCYS. Will update as convection develops
after 21Z. Stratus could return tonight out in the panhandle with
IFR conditions for most airports.


Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

No fire weather concerns through the weekend w/green fuels and winds
and humidities remaining outside of critical thresholds. Showers and
thunderstorms will occur this afternoon/evening, and again on Sunday
afternoon. A few may be severe along/east of the Laramie Range today
with large hail/damaging winds. Breezy conditions will continue over
Carbon county late this afternoon with gusts of 35 to 45 MPH and rhs
around 20 percent. A cold front will sweep across the region Sunday,
bringing cooler temperatures. Near average temperatures and isolated
to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected next week.


Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

One last warm day today with rapid snow melt this afternoon and
evening. Rivers are responding and should see the Upper North
Platte River rise to flood stage tonight and Sinclair by noon
Monday. Colder temperatures on the horizon that will slow the snow
melt. A cold front will move through southeast Wyoming Sunday with
freezing overnight temperatures and highs only in the 40s through
mid week.


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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