Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 120928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
328 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

IR Satellite loop and surface obs show a surface cold front moving
into western Wyoming early this morning. This feature along with
the associated upper level trough will be the main concern through
the remainder of the week. Models show this front progressing
eastward into southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska before
weakening as the initial upper level trough lifts northeast into
the northern plains tonight. High temperatures today will be
warmest ahead of the front, mainly along the I-80 corridor from
Laramie to Sidney Nebraska where highs in the 70`s are expected
below 6000 feet. Further north, the front will push through the
region earlier with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
compared to yesterday. For later today and tonight, jet energy
will interact with the front and some elevated instability and may
produce some rain showers late this afternoon and tonight, mainly
across far eastern Wyoming and the northern panhandle of Nebraska.
Confidence is pretty low at this point due to a pretty dry
boundary layer, so kept POP below 30 percent for now.

Any remnant shower activity and rainfall should move east of the
region by early Friday morning. Models show increasing southwest
flow across the area ahead of the next upper level trough digging
southeast across the Pac northwest. Temperatures will be cooler on
Friday, but should still be near average for this time of the year
with highs in the mid 50`s to mid 60`s, coolest over interior

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Friday night...Strong cold front rapidly moves into our western
counties overnight with increasing cloud cover and blustery winds.

Saturday...Fast moving shortwave trough aloft and its associated
strong cold front sweep west to east across our counties, producing
a windy and cold day with steady or slowly falling temperatures and
enough moisture and lift to produce isolated to scattered showers
mainly over our Wyoming counties.

Sunday...Expect a dry and slightly warmer day as the airmass
moderates and with dry northwest flow aloft.

Monday...Dry northwest flow aloft continues with the airmass
moderating and warmer temperatures.

Tuesday...Ridge aloft moves overhead with sunny skies and
temperatures about the same as Monday.

Wednesday...Fast moving and low amplitude shortwave trough aloft
moves overhead but with no precipitation due to lack of low and mid
level moisture. Perhaps slightly cooler with more cloud cover.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue today and tonight with
intervals of mid to high clouds. Breezy westerly winds are
expected from KRWL eastward towards KLAR and possibly KCYS this
afternoon with gusts between 25 to 30 knots possible.


Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

No Fire Weather concerns through the end of the week and into the
weekend as a cold front will push across the area starting later
today. Minimum relative humidities as low as 15 to 20 percent are
possible, but should be short-lived in the afternoon. Cooler
temperatures and higher humidities are expected for the weekend.




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