Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 281806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1206 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Unsettled weather will continue in the short term as we stay under
northwest flow.

Currently...Water vapor imagery showing trough of low pressure
across the Rockies into southern california. No big changes from
what we have been seeing the past week or so. Shortwave moving
into western Wyoming this morning will be the kicker for more
showers and thunderstorms later today.

Not looking at anything severe today. Both the GFS and NAM
forecasting 500-600 J/KG Capes. Not a lot of upper level jet
support either for am not too concerned with
anything severe today or Sunday. Sunday may be our driest day as
we get brief ridging over the area.

Monday may be the severe day as a cold front moves through the
area. SPC has a Slight Risk area identified for the Panhandle and
western South Dakota. Capes on the order of 2000 to 2500 J/KG out
that way as the nose of a 80kt jet moves into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

An upper-level trough will continue to move slowly eastward across
the CWA through at least Wed. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be the result, before large scale upper-lvl
ridging builds in for mid/late week. Subsidence aloft should limit
precipitation chances after Wednesday, although the GFS/ECMWF both
hint at weak disturbances undercutting the ridge which could yield
off and on precipitation chances in the mountains. A warming trend
can be expected through the period as H7 temperatures climb to +10
to +12 deg C by Fri/Sat.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Convection is becoming more widespread on satellite and radar
imagery late this morning. Expect vcts and -tsra to affect most
terminals through early this evening, especially as a cold front
drops south across the plains early this evening. Should see mvfr
vsbys in the heavier storms. Convection will diminish after sunset
with light winds prevailing through the night. Winds will shift to
the east-southeast and boundary layer moisture will increase
behind the front as well. So a return of fog is possible for most
lower elevation sites in the Nebraska Panhandle. Southerly winds
in the Laramie Valley could also promote fog formation at KLAR as
well late tonight, but confidence is somewhat low at this point.


Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns with greenup well underway and with
many areas seeing wetting rains the next few days. Afternoon
humidities expected to be well above critical levels with good to
excellent overnight recoveries.


Issued at 140 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Area rivers continue to run high...but are showing signs of
decreasing. Reservoir releases will keep the North Platte River
in the Panhandle and Laramie River at Fort Laramie running at
Flood stage. WArmer temperatures next week will begin to increase
snow melt rivers will be on the rise across the Upper
North Platte and Laramie River at Laramie next week.


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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