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000
FXUS65 KCYS 310553
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1053 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CONTINUES TO
PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO
MADE ITS WAY INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. ACCUMLUATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES NEAR THE COLORADO/
WYOMING BORDER OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. PLACES LIKE BAGS AND DIX
COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. NO UPDATES
NEEDED AS TONIGHTS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SHOWING THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TOWARDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATERVAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BREAKING DOWN THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLIER THIS
WEEK...OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
INITIALLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND DIGGING
SOUTHEAST INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WITH A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN
DIGGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO MEXICO ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
MISSING MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 HOWEVER...SO KEPT
POP BETWEEN 15 TO 30 PERCENT FROM RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH PLAINS MAY GET CLIPPED BY THE REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE MIXED WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY. REMOVED THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND LLVL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY...AND MAYBE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON COUNTY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR A TIME BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR LLVL FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO MAY JUST SEE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXITING JET
ALOFT...WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCORDING TO THE SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES. INCREASED POP BETWEEN
20 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LLVL GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY WILL START OUT BREEZY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE NORMALLY WINDIER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH
OUT OF THE WEST IN THE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING.  THE SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW PERSISTING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  WE MAY GET A PERIOD AGAIN TUESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH.  KEPT CHANCES OF
SNOW GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CARBON...ALBANY
AND WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT SNOWFALL
TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY
ROBUST UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...GIVING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LOCKED TO OUR
NORTH A QUICK SHOVE SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THAT AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HANGING UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CAME UP ON LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING CONTRARY TO THE PHYSICAL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW COLDER AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.  FOR THIS PACKAGE WE OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO OUR PREVIOUS
MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. WE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS (SNOW WEST AND A MIX EAST) GOING ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A
PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE.   LOOKING FARTHER OUT...UPPER RIDGING
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  WE SHOULD SEE
DECREASED POPS AND A BIT OF A WARMUP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES OUT WEST ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S (EXCEPT 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) AND 50S OUT EAST ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR.
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCURED DUE TO THE
LIGHT SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. THERE ALSO COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IFR POSSIBLE WITH
THE FALLING SNOW WHICH COULD AFFECT KAIA AND KSNY. THE MAIN AREA
OF SNOW WILL SET UP EAST OF THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED. RECENT MILD SPRING-LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL END BY THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES...HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY
IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT