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000
FXUS65 KCYS 011734
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD. MORNING WV
IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA
NORTH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST AND
AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING
THE ENTIRE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
EMPTY THIS MORNING WITH THE LAST CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVR ERN
MONTANA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. QUESTION MARK REMAINS ON WHETHER
OR NOT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING TODAY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN ITS INABILITY TO INITIATE ON THURSDAY. 00Z MODELS ARE PALTRY
WITH QPF OUTPUT TODAY COMPARED TO RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. WV IMAGERY
DOES SHOW A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT WILL DRIFT SE THRU PORTION OF
THE CWFA TODAY. THE MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO SPARK SOME WK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN YNP YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA AS WELL... DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME WK UPDRAFTS OVR EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING/NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THE INHERITED PRECIP CHANCES GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND IN AREAS NR THE
PINE RIDGE. IF CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE...IT WILL BE WEAK AND
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-5F
WARMER TODAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY ACROSS ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK DAILY
CONVECTION OVR THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE RANGES...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY THRU THE
WEEKEND..REACHING THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR ALL LOCATIONS BELOW 7KFT
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BEGINNING
MONDAY THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE CWA.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY WITH AN
UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WEDS THOUGH BETTER SUPPORT LOOKS TO
SHIFT NORTH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TO WARM DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TODAY WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE LINE REACHING AROUND 6000
FEET. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION RETURNS MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN