Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 042244
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
444 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
TO NEAR 50 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN MEASURED AT LARAMIE AND NEAR
BAGGS WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT TODAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL
BE MINIMAL AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS BUT A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SPINNING
IN THE NORTHWEST U.S. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS FEATURE MAY
SERVE AS A KICKER TO PUSH THE TROF NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE THE EFFECTS OF
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSES THROUGH WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AGAIN WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED...SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
CONDITIONS MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SHOWING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS
EVENING...IMPACTING KCYS AND AIRPORTS EAST THROUGH 05Z.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A NEAR REPEAT FOR SATURDAY. THE ONLY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT COULD START A WILDFIRE BUT OVERALL THIS
IS A MINIMAL CONCERN.

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ301>303-308.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML



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