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000
FXUS65 KCYS 081945
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1245 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND SIERRA RANGES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SNOW HAS ENDED.
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR
TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE -20 TO -30
DEGREE RANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN MODELS WOULD INDICATE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BUT THOSE
SHOULD END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWEST WIND HAS KICKED IN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP AND IS SHUTTING OFF SNOW CHANCES. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TRY AND TIME THE DECREASING SKY COVER AND
POP CHANCES AND ALSO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARDS FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. MOST LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO END THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WAS TRACKING
THROUGH UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST CLOUD-TOP ENHANCEMENT HAS
BEEN CONFINED SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF NEW SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE CWFA. SEE THIS CHANGING AT
LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS THIS POCKET OF MOISTURE
ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH FROM THIS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW. THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL FAIR SLIGHTLY
BETTER WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY AS THE THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE RACES OUT INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE CWFA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TONIGHT...WITH THE NEXT TRAILING CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICK ON
ITS HEELS TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL WIND CHILLS. WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY NEED A HAZARD FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAYS SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES OVER THE HIER
PEAKS. MORE OF AN IMPACT HOWEVER...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. LLVL KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS CLIMB ABOVE 60 METERS BY 18Z
MONDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PROGD H7 WINDS RISE
TO AROUND 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME AS WELL. AT H3...THE SUBSIDING RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN
ANTICYLONIC JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. SO CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
CLIMB AT LEAST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE MOST
FAVORED WIND AREAS IN SE WYOMING. SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FIRST FOR ARLINGTON/BORDEAUX BEGINNING AT NOON MONDAY BEFORE
SPREADING IT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
BREAK UP THE GRADIENT BRINGING AN END TO THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING A TAD BIT WETTER ACROSS
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW END
SNOW CHANCES THERE.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST FRIGID DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 20S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WED WITH BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  IT WILL
NOT BE AS WINDY AS TUES WITH WEAKER LLVL GRADIENTS.  TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND -10C TO
-12C.  TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS BY THURS AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON
THURS WILL SPLIT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BY FRI.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF COOLING ON FRI BEHIND A WEAK
FROPA.  PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK SLIM AT THIS TIME WITH
WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE.  THE MODELS HAVE ZONAL FLOW
INTENSIFYING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
LEE TROUGH AND MILDER TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BASES RISING
TO ABOVE 5000 FEET DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT FLURRIES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VIS. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
SEE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. A WINDY PERIOD WILL SET UP
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE WAY AS WELL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO NORMAL BY MID-
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WYZ116-117.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WYZ106-110.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN