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000
FXUS65 KCYS 091201
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
601 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE HIGH WIND
SPEEDS AT BORDEAUX THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY.

TODAY:
LATEST OBSERVATION AT BORDEAUX THIS MORNING WAS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MPH. 06Z NAM SOLUTION WAS SHOWING THE BEST
SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z WITH CAG/CPR 850MB
GRADIENT AROUND 60M THROUGH 15Z WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE TIME RANGE
FOR THE HIGH WIND EVENT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA THIS
MORNING SINCE IT APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED. THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR
BREAKING RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT-MONDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING WAVE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ALONG WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON MONDAY. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS
SUNDAY DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AND
WARM WEDGE OF 700MB TEMPERATURES SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 60S EAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE QUASIGEOSTROPHIC(SYNOPTIC) SCALE FORCING
THAN YESTERDAY`S RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF
FRONTOGENISIS OR INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE PERIOD OF LIFT.
AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE PICTURE. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AROUND LUSK AND DOUGLAS.
ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE THE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. AS A
RESULT...THIS EVENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS EVENT
WITH WITH MAINLY SNOW ON THE GRASSY SURFACES WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
MELTING ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SIERRA AND SNOWY MOUNTAIN RANGES
WHERE THEY COULD SEE AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO FLURRIES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY NOON ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MOSTLY DRY PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF TRANSITORY RIDGES AND
WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE THRU. THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER BETWEEN -3C AND -5C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND AROUND
50 ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA. THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUESDAY...WILL LIMIT
THE PRECIPITATION RESIDENCE TIME. WARMER PREFRONTAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BEGIN PRECIP AS RAIN FOR A TIME SATURDAY...BEFORE MIXING
AND/OR TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THIS THE POTENTIAL WOULD ONLY EXIST FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THEN. THE AIR MASS WILL DRY AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ENSUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/DEPARTING
WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS TODAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MID MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WYOMING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE DISTRICT
TODAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT DUE IN MONDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DUE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN