845
FXUS65 KCYS 082136
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
336 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of Carbon County
  through Wednesday evening due to very dry conditions alongside
  breezy winds.

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  both today, Wednesday, and Thursday.

- Active pattern will continue as monsoonal moisture moves into
  the region today through Wednesday.

- Much cooler Thursday night and Friday as a strong cold front
  moves south across the high plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A few echoes going up across the region this afternoon, but
overall parameters are marginal for stronger to severe
thunderstorms. While instability is there, support for activity
is meager including poor shear, but there is enough support for
hail growth that these storms could have marginal to near severe
hail alongside gusty winds thanks to inverted V soundings. Non-
supercell tornado parameters are also around 1-2 near the
Wyoming border, so some of this activity could potentially
produce a weak landspout though overall probability still
remains unlikely. Meanwhile further west, bone dry conditions
are noted with RH values in Carbon County down into the single
digits and winds gusting around 25-30 mph. A red flag warning
was issued this morning to account for these critical fire
weather conditions, which will continue into tomorrow evening
thanks to poor overnight recoveries alongside another round of
breezy winds and critical RH values tomorrow.

Into Wednesday, expecting even less coverage of thunderstorm
activity as ridging continues to surge over us and we see even
warmer temperatures. It could be one of the hottest days we`ve
seen this year, with highs into the 90`s to triple digits for
locations across the CWA. Meanwhile we`re just barely clipped by
a marginal risk for severe weather primarily in the northeastern
Nebraska Panhandle, and high resolution guidance agrees we`ll
barely see much in the way activity through the evening. That
being said, as a surge of moisture moves in from the west and
troughing begins to overtake the ridging, a round of showers and
possibly some storms could move into our drier areas of Carbon
and Albany Counties by early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Thursday, A cold front drops down from our Canadian neighbor to the
north. This will drag down some cooler air to drop temps into the
70`s on Friday to cool us off from the 80`s to 90`s occurring on
Thursday. With this front the global models show some showers
occurring overnight as they place between 500 to 1000 joules of CAPE
with this front. The Intermountain West may see a few tenths of rain
to up to an inch in some areas according to the Max/Min 24hr QPF
spread. This weekend looks fairly warm as another ridge sets up with
Sunday being the warmer of the days. Saturday looks to be in the
70`s to 80`s while sunday will be 80`s to 90`s as that ridge axis
pivots across our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A ridge looks to start building across the Intermountain West.
Winds will be relatively light and switch to a more southerly
direction tomorrow. Looking at model soundings they all show a
pretty stout dry layer at the surface. SO TS was kept from
previous Prob30 as virga seems to be the most likely scenario.
Most of the model guidance has the thunderstorms in the southern
portion of the Panhandle and KAIA as well. However, there is
still a slight chance KCYS and KBFF may have a shower produce
near them.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ420>423-425-
     427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM