Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 141800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1200 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Morning IR loop showing mostly clear skies over the CWA with better
moisture having been pushed well to the south. Some patchy fog still
possible around the Cheyenne Ridge this morning as T/Td spreads are
getting close. Quiet conditions look to hold across the area with
an upper high residing over the CWA through Saturday before slipping
to the southwest Sunday. This will maintain quite warm and mainly
dry weather over the CWA through Sunday, with just a few afternoon
and evening showers and storms possible mainly over the higher
mtns/far west parts of the CWA where moisture should be a bit
higher. Temps will stay a little above seasonal averages each day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Upper ridge axis from Upper Midwest to Desert Southwest shifts
slowly east and south, becoming aligned east-west from the Four
Corners to the mid-South by mid-week. This pattern will promote a
better influx of subtropical/monsoonal moisture on the west side
of the upper ridge into the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. Embedded
shortwaves will enhance convection, especially each afternoon and
evening. Precipitable water (PWAT) values increase to 1.25-1.50"
by Thursday. Weak 0-6km shear will limit severe potential, however
weak storm motions and high PWATs will favor locally heavy rainfall.
High temperatures will gradually moderate to more seasonal normals
mid-late week with increased moisture and cloud cover.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

High pressure will produce VFR conditions thru this TAF cycle. No
weather impacts are anticipated for aviation ops.


Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Fire weather concerns will remain low into early next week with
weather conditions mainly non-critical. Mainly dry weather expected
over the weekend, then chances for rain increase early next week as
monsoonal moisture increases over the area.





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