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000
FXUS65 KCYS 260200
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
800 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Skies have cleared and winds have diminished to less than 10 kt.
This will be ideal setup for radiational cooling tonight, with
temperatures falling quickly. Expect early morning lows in the 30s.
Temperature/dew point spreads will be close enough for patchy frost
in sheltered valleys of the western Nebraska panhandle between 10Z
and 13Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Tuesday Night)

A gradual warming trend can be expected during the next few days as
upper-level ridging continues to build into the region. Chances for
precipitation through Tuesday night will be virtually zero along w/
mostly clear skies. The models show H7 temperatures climbing to +10
deg C or so by Tuesday afternoon, so expect daytime highs in the 75
to 85 degree range to the east of the Laramie Range.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

All models in generally good agreement into next weekend...showing
the upper level ridge axis remaining over Great Plains through
Thursday before some shortwave energy begins to lift northeast across
the Central Rockies by Friday and into next weekend. Models do show
some differences in timing with these shortwave...so the low
confidence is reflected with the POP forecast. High temperatures
will generally be in the 70`s to around 80 across most of the
forecast area...with the warmest temperatures across the lower
elevations of western Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming. Highs may
remain in the upper 60`s west of Interstate 25 later in the week
as some mid to high clouds enter the region. Kept POP around 20
percent late Friday through Sunday...mainly in the afternoon...for
some shower activity and isolated thunder across the mountains and
eastern plains as two shortwave disturbances move out of the Great
Basin region. The strongest one appears to move across southeast
Wyoming on sunday...ahead of the main Pacific trough digging
southeast into the Great Basin region. Will have to keep an eye on
this system as we head into the weekend...with long range models
showing 700mb temperatures ranging from -4c to -8c behind the cold
front and a greater chance of widespread precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening)
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR. Light and variable winds increase to 10-15 kt after 16Z Monday.
Gusts up to 20 kt possible for terminals east of the Laramie Range
Monday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

No major concerns with projected minimum RH values above 20 percent
through mid-week. It will be breezy at times, especially across the
typical wind corridors of southeast Wyoming, but overall conditions
will remain non-critical.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAJ
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH