Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 261735 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MAINLY LOOKING
AT VIRGA. IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ON
THE THINKER SIDE...DEEPER MIXING AND THUS STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
LESS LIKELY. SO MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS AM ON THE EAST SIDE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 09Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD SEE THIS SPREAD INTO
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGER SCALE LIFT IMPROVES WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT H25 JET. BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POPS GOING NORTHEAST. GFS LIFTED INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH THE DAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS SPREAD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE. WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 30 TO 35
KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
LONG AFTER SUNRISE TO CRANK UP THE WINDS. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
BOTH SUGGEST A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. WE MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE SUGGESTS
MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EFFICIENT WITH LLVL MIXING. BEST CHANCE
FOR 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ROCKIES. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH GFS H7 TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE 0 DEG C. WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SAT WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON H7 TEMPS EXCEEDING +5 DEG C BY 00Z SUN. LLVL DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN FRI...SO EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY WITH RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...BUT
EVEN THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE BENEATH THE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...SO FIRE WEATHER STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN ISSUE ON SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED RED FLAG PRODUCTS
AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF
IN THE SHORT TERM. WARM AND BREEZY WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
PROBLEMS EMERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...AS 00Z MODELS
STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE 00Z GFS PASSES THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE CWFA THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE DIFFERENCES
WOULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WETTER ACROSS NRN AND ERN
ZONES WITH A STRONGER FROPA...WHILE THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE FROPA
DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS GIVEN ITS
BETTER RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZIER/COOLER
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA... WITH HIGHS HOLDING GENERALLY IN
THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS. NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. PROGD LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW
ZERO IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WOULD TAKE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO COLORADO PRETTY
QUICKLY...SO DONT ENVISION ANY IMPACTS OVR ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRI. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SAT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



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