Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 231805
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1105 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN SHORT
SUCCESSION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO HAVING MORE MOISTURE SUCH THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TODAY. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
PLAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO NEBRASKA MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS MUCH DIFFERENT IN PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE NAM FARTHER WEST. PLACEMENT WILL ONLY MAKE A MINOR
DIFFERENCE IN WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW AT BEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD
CARRY OVER INTO MON MORNING AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG H85
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS AT 12Z. THE EASTERN WIND PRONE AREAS
OF BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT
AT HITTING CRITERIA AT THAT TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE WELL TO THE EAST BY THEN. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING VERY
WIDESPREAD OUT OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE...GIVING WAY TO EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. H7 TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
4-5 DEG C AT 00Z TUE. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH OF 65 AT CHEYENNE
ON MON...AND THAT IS VERY POSSIBLE UNLESS WE GET SOME CIRRUS ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRENDED A BIT WARMER THERE.

STAYING WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN. MODELS BRING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWS. BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE SNOWIES AND SIERRA MADRES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WARM AND WINDY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY OVER THE PLAINS WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF H75 FLOW AFTER 12Z
WED. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW CHARTS SHOW NEAR ADIABATIC
PROFILES UP TO 1-2 KM WITH 50 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX OVER CYS. THIS
FAVORS A HIGH WIND EVENT...PRIMARILY OVER BORDEAUX AND THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A
DEVELOPING BORA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL CONSIDERABLY POST-FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KRWL.
KRWL COULD ALSO SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU AROUND 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY
WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...SML


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