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000
FXUS63 KGRB 161150
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER FOR FATHER`S DAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS REACHED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WENT WITH THE HIGHER OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEEPENING ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY GET BEATEN DOWN AND SHIFT EAST BY THE
END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...NW FLOW WILL
PROVIDE QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WILL STICK
MAINLY WITH THE ECMWF UNTIL LATER PERIODS WHEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WILL GET WORKED INTO THE BLEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING.  THE
NAM SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE START OF THE EVENING...BUT A WEAK RIBBON HANGS BACK OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING.  AFTERWARD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVECT IN A POLAR CONTINENTAL AIRMASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AND WINDS SHOULD BE TURNING LIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN THE COLD SPOTS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS
COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COLD SPOTS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIVING SE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THESE WAVES
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.P. BORDER SO WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND FINALLY SHIFT EAST
DURING THE THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK RIPPLES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ARRIVES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A RHINELANDER TO MARINETTE LINE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM