Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 031114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...HIGHS TODAY WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. MUCAPES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOAR TO
500 TO 750 J/KG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT. ALTHOUGH THESE PARAMETERS DO NOT
PORTEND SEVERE WEATHER...THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PV ANOMALIES TRACKING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER CHANCES WOULD BE FAIRLY LOW...IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...THANKS TO A DOMINANT RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE BECOMING SPLIT AT THE SAME TIME.  IN
GENERAL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RELATIVELY FEW DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL FOLLOW
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE.  THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  PROBABILITIES LOOK HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY...SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS RELATIVELY
TIGHTER OVER EASTERN WI.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT MOIST THOUGH...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK.
WILL PREFER TO KEEP THE REGION DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER 70S TO MID 80S HIGHS SEEMS
LIKELY.  THE SURGE OF SUMMER LIKE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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