459
FXUS64 KLZK 271128
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A much needed pattern change is in store for the short term period.
Calm and dry conditions are expected through much of the period as
high pressure takes over the weather pattern. A cold front is
currently situated over over southern Arkansas and will continue to
push towards the southeast. This front has pushed the showers and
thunderstorms out of the CWA leading to dry and calm conditions.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night for
southwestern locations as a disturbance pushes across the Gulf
Coast. The chance for severe weather appears to be low at this time.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side through the short term with
some relief in the long term period. High temperatures are expected
to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the state with overnight low
temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The period will begin with NWrly flow aloft across much of the Cntrl
CONUS thanks to a Ewrd propagating ridge near the Rockies. At the
surface, high pressure will be in place across the Mid/Nrn MS
Valleys. Clockwise flow around this area of high pressure will
advect cooler and drier air into the region, via Nrly winds. Drier
and cooler air will remain entrenched across portions of the
state through midweek, maybe even late week over N/NE/E AR,
however moisture will begin to creep back into SW AR as early as
the start of the period. The upper pattern may become more zonal
heading into the weekend time frame.

A parade of upper level disturbances are expected to traverse
background NWrly flow at intermittent intervals through the period.
This should allow for the development of convective complexes with
some of these upper level impulses, resulting in potential MCS`s to
develop and propagate SEwrd across portions of the state, along a
pronounced NW to SE situated theta E gradient. Damaging straight-
line winds would be the primary hazards with any of these
thunderstorms. The question remains, where does this theta E
gradient set up exactly, and this will help narrow down the corridor
of greatest rain chances. At this time, highest PoP chances will be
over W and SW AR in closer proximity to the aforementioned gradient.

Temperatures through the period would be in the upper 70s to upper
80s for highs and upper 50s and upper 60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Patchy fog has reduced VIS`s below VFR cat this morning at most
terminals, however conds should quickly improve back to VFR after
14z today. Sky conds will be mostly clear and winds will be NWrly
around 10 kts with gusts across Nrn AR around 20 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  64  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         92  66  88  65 /   0  10  10  20
Harrison AR       84  61  82  58 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    92  66  88  65 /   0  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  91  67  89  65 /   0   0  10  10
Monticello AR     92  68  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      91  64  87  63 /   0  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  85  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        89  65  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10
Russellville AR   90  64  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
Searcy AR         89  64  88  62 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      90  67  88  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70