995
FXUS64 KLZK 060533
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Latest satellite data indicate numerous convective rolls, oriented
meridonal across the forecast area. Forcing due to this phenomena
has produced a few showers, mainly in the south central sections
of the forecast area. Additional, widely scattered (15-24%
coverage) development is expected through the afternoon into early
evening.

A cold front will approach the state from the north on Sunday
afternoon.  This feature is expected to promote a greater (>35%)
coverage of convection across northern sections Sunday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A northwesterly upper flow will prevail over the mid south during
this period. Near normal temperatures will prevail. Most days will
experience a scattered (30-50%) coverage of afternoon and evening
convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A band of light showers over portions of northwestern and northern
Arkansas will continue to push east and dissipate over the next
couple of hours with minimal impacts at KHRO and KBPK. Isolated
showers over central Arkansas might see a lightning strike or two
before dissipating within the next hour or so. Light and variable
winds will prevail at all terminals through the overnight into
the early morning hours, then light S/SW winds will prevail
through the rest of the period. Hi-res CAMs continue over multiple
model runs showing scattered showers and thunderstorm over
portions of northern and northeast Arkansas on Sunday afternoon
into the early evening hours with isolated shower and thunderstorm
coverage elsewhere. Although, the chance for POPs is low, elected
to put PROB30 groups at KHRO and KPBK. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  91  72  90 /  30  60  20  60
Camden AR         73  94  73  95 /  10  40  10  40
Harrison AR       69  88  70  87 /  40  60  20  60
Hot Springs AR    73  94  73  94 /  10  50  10  50
Little Rock   AR  75  93  75  93 /  10  50  10  50
Monticello AR     75  94  75  95 /  10  40  10  50
Mount Ida AR      72  93  72  92 /  10  50  10  50
Mountain Home AR  70  89  70  87 /  40  60  20  60
Newport AR        74  93  74  92 /  30  50  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     74  93  74  93 /  10  40  10  50
Russellville AR   73  93  73  92 /  20  50  20  50
Searcy AR         73  93  73  93 /  20  50  20  50
Stuttgart AR      76  93  75  93 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...Kelly