Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 160543 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018


Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions expected through the period with W-NW winds in
place for much of the day.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 654 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018)

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.


VFR prevails through the entire period and ongoing cloud cover
will continue dissipating over the next few hours. W to NW winds
will subside some tonight, then gust area wide tomorrow through
evening. Sig wx nil.


SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday

The main story for this forecast issuance will be the cold
temperatures overnight tonight, and into Monday morning.
Temperatures are expected to drop near or below freezing across the
majority of the state as west northwesterly winds continue to advect
cold and dry air into the region behind the cold front that moved
through yesterday. Dense cloud cover persisted for much of the day
today, resulting in lower high temperatures than previously thought.
However, cloud cover is expected to clear overnight which will lead
to enhanced radiational cooling, and therefore have lowered min
temperatures a few degrees tonight to account for these conditions.

Winds have been quite strong today with sustained speeds near 15 to
20 MPH, and gusts between 20 and 30 MPH. The strong winds can be
attributed to a tightening in the pressure gradient as a rigorous
upper level low continues to move eastward through the state.

High pressure will return to the forecast area behind the storm
system, bringing back mostly sunny skies and tranquil weather.
Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer to start the new week with
highs steadily climbing each day to reach the 70s and 80s by Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

High pressure will shift eastward Monday into Tuesday. A weak
frontal boundary will move across the area Tuesday night or early
Wednesday morning. However, with little time for ample moisture
return, there will be only slight rain chances in the far south,
and I`m seriously having my doubts about that prospect.

Doubts start to fade by late in the week, though, as models continue
to show a potent system affecting Arkansas during the weekend. This
could end up being a fairly well-stacked system with a surface and
closed upper low nearly in-phase with each other. The exact path of
the systems will determine if we get strong thunderstorms or not.

Not surprisingly after Saturday, the model solutions diverge, with
the GFS being more progressive and pushing the systems to the
eastern Seaboard. The ECMWF is showing the upper low becoming
detached from the main flow as a ridge centered over the
Appalachians amplifies. Should this pan out, the low could likely
meander around for a few days, and we would return to more of an
unsettled pattern.


For those of you who may be curious, if we fall to freezing at
Little Rock (and North Little Rock for that matter) early Monday
morning, this would be the latest freeze since April 19, 1983, and
the 2nd latest on record at both locations.

At Little Rock, the latest freezes have been...
1. April 19, 1983
2. April 13, 1957
3. April 13, 1940
4. April 11, 1989
5. April 11, 1973

At North Little Rock, the latest freezes have been...
1. April 19, 1983
2. April 8, 2007
3. April 7, 1982
4. April 4, 1987
5. March 30, 1991

This has also been an interesting April at Little Rock. Average low
temperatures the first two weeks of (April 1st-14th) have been the
coldest since 1975, and the coldest on record at 40.9, with the
previously coldest April 1st-14th at 41.1 in 1975 and 1971. Pretty
impressive considering temperature records started in 1879.

As for average temperature, it`s been the coldest April 1-14 since
1983, and the 2nd coldest over all at 52.6 degrees. Only 1881 and
1983 were colder (52.4).


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.



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