Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 132346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
746 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

While a ridge builds in across the Plains this afternoon, the
forecast area will be under the influence of northwesterly flow. As
surface high pressure becomes established to our southwest over the
northern Gulf, the northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will
continue to usher in a dry continental airmass through the day across
the forecast area. A Fire Danger Statement will remain in effect
areawide this afternoon and into the evening hours as fuel moistures
hover around the 8% mark with minimum relative humidities at 25% or
lower for 4 or more hours this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will
persist through the late afternoon gusting between 20 and 30 mph
before diminishing after sunset, but are not expected to meet
criteria for a Wind Advisory. This afternoon, temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 70s for much of the forecast while areas while
overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Sunday, the surface high pressure will translate eastward allowing
for winds to shift to the southwest. Moisture return back into the
atmospheric column from the Gulf will produce isolated to scattered
cloud coverage Sunday across the forecast area. The uptick in
moisture will also keep the relative humidities a little higher
through the day and ultimately limit areawide fire weather concerns.
Amid large scale subsidence and abundant sunshine, temperatures will
be a bit warmer Sunday where most locations outside of elevated
terrain will reach the low to mid 80s.



(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

No major changes to note in the long term with this latest
forecast update. Conditions remain dry through Tuesday with rain
chances returning at least for the northern sections of the CWA
Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond Thursday, models diverge greatly
following the exit of the mid-week system. Capped any PoPs at
<30% Friday through the weekend. See previous discussion below for
additional details.

At a glance:

    - Ridging supports unseasonably warm and dry conditions through

    - Rain chances return Wednesday and Thursday

Moving into Monday, (exiting) surface high pressure and mid-level
ridging will have overspread much of ECONUS. Under the influence of
several days of subsidence -- with effectively zero precipitation
chances until Wednesday afternoon -- expect our highs to soar into
the 80s areawide (as much as 10-15 degrees above average for mid-
April) each day through Thursday. Lows will also be quite warm, in
the upper-50s to 60s.

By Wednesday, a mid-level closed low lifting northward across the
Great Plains will support strong surface cyclogenesis -- with progged
MSLP 2 to 3 sigma below average per GEFS and Euro ensembles. The
movement of the aforementioned low(s) will nudge the axes of our
presiding ridge and surface high the remainder of the way off of the
Eastern Seaboard, cutting off the metaphorical torch of subsidence to
round off the week. Concurrently, an attendant cold front will sweep
across the Deep South, and our rain chances look to return Wednesday
through Thursday. By this time, the parent low will likely be making
its way across Michigan, and "best" frontal dynamics will be far
removed from the forecast area. For now, severe potential appears to
be negligible. Rainfall totals are forecast to be minimal, between a
tenth and three-quarters of an inch, with highest amounts across
north Georgia.

Beyond Thursday, divergence between global models regarding key
synoptic features increases significantly. Another shot of showers
and thunderstorms are possible on Friday, but details are murky.



(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Only thin cirrus
clouds late tonight and on Sun along with a possible 6-7kft few- sct
deck of clouds Sun afternoon. Winds will drop off to light and
variable to calm by mid-evening in most locales. Winds will be SW-WSW
on Sun and lighter than today, although gusts to 16-20 kts are
possible in the late morning and afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High for all elements.



Athens          50  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         54  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     47  78  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    51  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        53  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     52  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           51  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            50  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  51  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         53  85  60  86 /   0   0   0   0




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