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000
FXUS62 KFFC 221143
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019


...12Z Aviation Discussion...


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Here we are again. Yet another day of quiet, pleasant weather, with
high pressure dominating the region, no rain, light winds, and
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. A beautiful day, but it
makes for a rather boring discussion.

Tomorrow, marks the first day of Autumn, however, if you`ll be
outside you would never guess it! The 500 hPa ridge that has been
persistently centered over the region will begin to flatten out as a
mid-level trough moved through the Midwest and a cold front begins
to just barely move into the far northwestern portions of the
forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. For the first time in a while a
slight chance of rain exists in the short term forecast, although
it`s only for the far northwest corner of GA at the far end of the
forecast period, aka, late Monday afternoon. The warming trend will
also continue ahead of the frontal boundary with highs starting to
return to the low 90s for a large portion of the forecast area,
which is closer to 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Thiem


LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

The long term portion begins as a frontal boundary sags into the
area. Moisture will be very limited, especially according to the
ECMWF which continues to show no precip associated with the
frontal feature. GFS is more aggressive with 1.90 inch
precipitable water entering the far northern tier late Monday
evening. Instability will be close to non existent with the very
warm mid layers in place. Will use a blend but lean toward the
drier solution which yields just a small sliver of 20 pops.

Front moves through the area through Tuesday but any cool off will
be no more than a degree or 2 and portions of Central GA will see
no relief with highs in the mid 90s. Some enhanced instability
Tue afternoon for Central GA in vicinity of the front but at this
time, given continued dry conditions per ECMWF, will keep grids
pop free for this time period.

Remainder of the long term will feature at times some upper level
energy moving across mainly the northern tier. However, moisture
looks even more limited with these runs as compared with last
nights and have chosen to just indicate a dry forecast for the
grids as well. Low to mid 90s will be the rule and this will take
us right up to the end of the month with these continued hot
conditions.

Deese

&&


.AVIATION...
12Z Update...

VFR condition expected through the TAF period for all sites. No
precip expected with only FEW050 possible for cloud cover in the
afternoon. Winds expected to shift briefing to the SW before
becoming light and SE in the late morning through the afternoon.
Tonight winds will once again be mostly calm but any winds that
do sustain themselves will shift out of the southwest around 06Z
becoming light and westerly tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...
12Z Update...

Medium on morning wind direction.
High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  59  90  67 /   0   0   0   5
Atlanta         87  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   5
Blairsville     81  55  83  59 /   0   0  10  20
Cartersville    89  60  91  67 /   0   0   5  10
Columbus        89  64  93  68 /   0   5   0   5
Gainesville     85  61  88  67 /   0   0   5   5
Macon           88  62  90  67 /   0   5   0   5
Rome            89  59  91  65 /   0   0  10  10
Peachtree City  88  60  91  67 /   0   0   0   5
Vidalia         89  63  91  67 /   0   5   0   0

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Thiem