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000
FXUS62 KFFC 212353
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
653 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the TAF cycle.
Clouds increase from the south through the day tomorrow and lower
into MVFR levels by early evening across metro sites and AHN. MCN
and CSG can expect MVFR clouds a little earlier. Winds have
shifted out of the E or SE at all sites with an increase in wind
speeds expected during the morning Tuesday AM. For ATL...have
added prob30 for -RA at the tail end of the period...after 00z Wed
as light rain will be overspreading the area during the evening
hours continuing into the overnight.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
high confidence all elements

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

The rest of today and much of tomorrow is expected to be dry before
the next system moves into the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
For today, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, although the mountains and the far north will still be
stuck in the 30s, with 40s further south. Tonight will be another
chilly night with lows in the 20s across much of the area.

As the surface high pressure over the eastern US begins to slide
east today and tonight towards the coast, a wedge will build in
across northeastern Georgia and remain in place for Tuesday. For
much of the area, chances for rain will start to increase late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. More importantly, as moisture spreads
over the wedge there is some potential to see a wintry mix in
portions of north and northeast Georgia. These areas could see a mix
of rain and freezing rain, especially in the higher elevations and
other portions of northeast Georgia in the vicinity of the wedge.
There are still quite a few differences in the models as far as
temperatures, duration, and location for the freezing rain, but the
best time frame looks to be in the 00z to 12Z time frame Wednesday
morning. The most favorable location looks to be mainly across
northeast Georgia, especially in the higher elevations. Current
totals for freezing rain are light, less than a tenth of an inch,
and temperatures should continue to rise past daybreak. All frozen
precipitation should transition to all liquid by late morning.

Reaves

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Extended forecast period continues to show a decidedly cool trend as
the large scale pattern keeps the eastern half of the country
predominately under the influence of long wave troughing. There
continues to be significant differences in the details however
between the primary medium-range models, and noticeable run-to-run
inconsistency within each individual model. We will likely see a few
chances for some wintry precipitation through the period, beginning
Thursday on the back side of the exiting system. This is really the
main transition into the more consistently cool period and a lot of
the potential for some change-over will be how quickly the
precipitation exits vs how soon the colder air spills in. Next
chance appears to be over the weekend, however, details remain
tenuous as the model solutions continue to show quite a bit of
divergence concerning the evolution of the finer-scale details
through the latter half of the period.

Over-all, current extended forecast grids cover this potential and
uncertainty quite well so little change made with this cycle. Please
see the previous Long Term Forecast Discussion below.

20


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          24  45  35  60 /   0  10  50  60
Atlanta         26  45  39  60 /   0  10  50  70
Blairsville     21  40  32  51 /   0  10  60  80
Cartersville    26  45  38  57 /   0  10  50  80
Columbus        29  52  47  65 /   0  10  40  70
Gainesville     24  42  34  54 /   0  10  50  80
Macon           26  51  44  67 /   0  10  40  50
Rome            26  46  40  57 /   0  10  60  80
Peachtree City  26  47  41  62 /   0  10  50  70
Vidalia         29  53  47  70 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...30