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233
FXUS62 KFFC 251110 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
710 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Main concern today is the potential for strong to severe
convection this afternoon and early evening.

SPC is indicating a marginal to slight risk for severe storms
over roughly the western half to two thirds of the forecast area.
The most likely hazards will be large hail and damaging winds.
Forecast soundings suggest deep layer shear that will support
supercell development and large hail is the primary hazard in the
vicinity of the upper trough. You can not rule out a brief tornado
but low level shear is borderline.

The associated cold front moves across the area late today and tonight
and this will diminish storm chances through the evening.

The models are generally consistent bringing an upper low/trough
to the area on Tuesday. This will give a 20-30 percent chance for
showers for much of the area.

Forecast high temperatures are running near to as much as 7 degrees
above normal across the area today and about 5-10 degrees below normal
on Tuesday. Forecast low temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees
above normal tonight.

Overall confidence is medium.

BDL

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

A secondary closed upper low behind the main trough could lead to
some wraparound cloud coverage and additional light showers and
graupel (the latter due to very cold temperatures in the core of the
system) on Tuesday. These conditions should be coming to an end by
Tuesday night as the extended period begins. Upper-level ridging
will then build in to the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday and an
associated surface high will simultaneously move east of the
Appalachians. High pressure will then progressively build southward
from this high across the forecast area during the later half of the
work week. Clearing skies and dry conditions will be anticipated to
return on Wednesday and lead to gradual warming through the end of
the week. High temperatures mainly 5-10 degrees below climatological
normals on Wednesday gradually increasing to 4-8 degrees above
climatological normals by Saturday.

The next system approaches the area during the coming weekend as an
upper level longwave trough moves eastward from the Great Plains
towards the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a low pressure system is
expected to drop a cold front into the the Mississippi Valley by
Saturday night. This front is expected to push southeastward towards
the forecast area Sunday as the low quickly retreats to the
northeast. Model guidance is trending towards better agreement, but
still remains somewhat inconsistent with the handling of this system
as the front approaches Georgia. Latest GFS presents a faster, drier
solution with precipitation ahead of the front entering the area
late Saturday night and clearing the forecast area Sunday night,
while the latest ECMWF presents a slower, wetter solution with
precipitation entering Sunday morning and lingering until the front
clears Monday morning. Sufficient instability is possible across
central Georgia during the daytime on Sunday to support thunderstorm
development, so included a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
southern portion of the forecast area at that time. Will continue to
monitor severe weather potential in ensuing forecasts for severe
potential as model guidance continues to come into better
agreement.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR for much of the forecast with lowering VFR ceilings and
potential for MVFR conditions associated with heavier showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Surface winds
becoming SW then WNW late around 10 kts with some gusts then
NNW later tonight and mostly NE for Tuesday with some MVFR
ceilings.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence for ceilings to start then Low to Medium
 confidence for ceilings and thunderstorms after 15z.
High confidence for winds.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  49  60  38 /  80  70  10   5
Atlanta         68  50  59  41 /  80  70  20  10
Blairsville     63  44  56  35 /  90  60  40  10
Cartersville    67  48  58  40 /  90  60  20  10
Columbus        75  54  65  43 /  70  60  30  20
Gainesville     65  48  58  39 /  80  60  20   5
Macon           75  52  62  40 /  60  70  20  10
Rome            66  48  59  41 /  80  50  20  10
Peachtree City  70  51  60  40 /  80  70  20  10
Vidalia         80  56  66  42 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...BDL