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000
FXUS62 KFFC 180201 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1001 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019


.UPDATE...

Made a few minor adjustments to the overnight grids, but overall
forecast remains on track. Will see lingering, isolated convection
through the overnight with coverage increasing through the day
tomorrow.

20


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 755 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

..00Z Aviation Update...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the area but
things are still fairly isolated. Extreme north GA is still under
a marginal risk with the rest of the state under a general risk.
This still looks good for today as the best instability and
deepest moisture is across N GA. The over all weather pattern
continues to transition as the next frontal system to move
through the area is developing across the southern and central
plains today. This next frontal system is expected to push into
the Mid to lower MS river valley tonight and then into NW GA by
sunrise Tuesday. This system will weaken some as it pushes east
overnight but keeping N GA in a Marginal risk area still looks
good for Tuesday. This frontal system will bring much deeper
moisture in across the area and diurnally driven instability as
well. Precipitable water values increase into the 1.5in to 2.0in
range especially across N GA Tuesday so definitely looking for
increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The biggest threats
for any strong to severe storms appears to be heavy rain, Gusty
Winds, and Hail.

01

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No major changes needed for the forecast.

Zonal flow aloft gives way to a trough on Thursday. Behind the
trough, a high pressure ridge aloft builds in across the area. No
real change in the surface pattern for Wednesday, but a weak surface
boundary will begin to push south across the CWFA Thursday into
Friday. A return to a more diurnal pattern is expected for the
weekend into early next week.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Generally VFR conditions expected through 08Z, outside of isolated
to scattered convection. MVFR or lower ceilings will develop across
much of the area by 10-12Z, improving to VFR by 18Z. Winds will be
southeast to southwest 3-7kt, becoming generally southwest to west
after 12Z. Isolated convection possible through the overnight hours,
increasing in coverage from west to east after 12Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium to high on all elements

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  88 /  30  70  60  30
Atlanta         71  86  70  87 /  30  60  50  30
Blairsville     64  80  63  81 /  40  70  60  40
Cartersville    70  87  69  87 /  30  70  50  40
Columbus        72  90  72  90 /  30  60  40  40
Gainesville     69  84  70  85 /  30  70  60  30
Macon           70  90  70  90 /  30  60  50  40
Rome            70  86  69  87 /  30  70  50  40
Peachtree City  70  87  69  88 /  30  60  50  40
Vidalia         72  90  73  91 /  20  60  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...20