106
FXUS62 KFFC 200152
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
952 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025


...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Forecast remains on track for this evening, with partly cloudy to
cloudy and dry conditions to follow tonight. As we approach
daybreak, some patchy dense fog development is possible in the
wake of this afternoon`s convection. Expect overnight lows to drop
into the 60s to lower-70s.

96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the
  evening, mainly along and south of the I-85/I-20 corridors.

- Warm and mostly dry tomorrow (Friday).

A line of convection arcing west to east from Arkansas to Georgia
is surging southward at the time of this writing. So far, wind
observations associated with this convection across north and
central Georgia have been 30-40 mph. Storms have been producing
frequent lightning strikes and spurts of heavy rainfall. Barring
light stratiform rain on the back-side of the convective cluster
or a stray storm, the environment along and north of the I-85 has
largely stabilized due to earlier convection. In fact, the latest
SPC mesoanalysis indicates a meso-high centered on Alabama --
evidence of the post-convection cold pool. A Marginal Risk (level
1 out of 5) remains in place where storms are still pushing east-
southeastward. Storms are moving at a decent enough clip (~30 mph)
to preclude localized flooding concerns -- not to mention that
storms are not training over the same general areas.

A weak cold front is progged to push southward overnight and
could support some isolated showers across north Georgia.
Additionally, areas of fog and mist -- as well as associated
patchy low clouds -- are expected across portions of north and
central Georgia. Patchy dense fog will be possible.

Tomorrow will mark the beginning of a synoptic pattern change
that will bring dry conditions for much of the CWA, along with
increasing temperatures and humidity. The current forecast has
PoPs confined generally along and south of a line from Columbus to
Macon to Swainsboro, where lingering moisture will be focused
along the residual front. A mostly sunny sky will allow
temperatures to reach the lower 90s to mid-90s across much of the
CWA. Portions of central Georgia -- especially getting closer to
south Georgia -- may have heat index values hit the 100-degree
mark early to mid-afternoon.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key Message:

 - Conditions this weekend will be relatively dry for mid-June,
   with isolated showers and thunderstorms being confined to
   central Georgia on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will begin to
   increase once again Tuesday into Wednesday.

 - More heat builds in and intensifies through early next week
   with temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the area.
   Forecast heat index values could reach into the lower 100s.
   Though some uncertainty exists on reaching these with afternoon
   storm chances returning.

Through the long term period, the pattern aloft will look quite a
bit different than what we`ve been seeing over the last week. The
upper level trough will continue to move away to the northeast as
a broad and stout subtropical ridge builds over the CONUS to the
east of the Rockies. This ridge will intensify over the course of
the weekend as a mean high of 594-597 mb becomes centered over the
Southeast. A warming trend will be ongoing under the influence of
the ridge, plenty of sunshine, and surface high pressure centered
just off the Carolina coast. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will
largely be in the low to mid 90s across the forecast area. A drier
airmass will also be in place at the lower levels underneath this
ridge behind the frontal boundary stalled in south-central
Georgia. Precipitable water values will be on the order of
1.0-1.25 inches this weekend. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will range from 20-30 percent roughly along and
south of a line from Columbus to Macon on Saturday afternoon, then
below 20 percent across the area on Sunday.

The ridge axis will gradually shift to the east during the early
parts of next week. The heat dome under the ridge will remain in
place across the Southeast, and highs will increase to the mid to
upper 90s across the majority of the area from Monday through
Wednesday. Low-level moisture will also increase early next week,
with diurnally driven thunderstorm chances increasing accordingly.
The combination of hot temperatures and increasing humidity will
allow heat indices to climb into the low 100s. Heat indices could
furthermore approach 105 and heat advisory criteria in portions of
east Georgia by Tuesday and Wednesday. It is worth noting that
model guidance can overestimate high temperatures (and heat
indices) this far in advance given difficulties in resolving
spotty diurnal convective coverage, associated cloud cover, and
cold pool activity. Regardless, it is likely that the weekend and
next week will be the hottest stretch we`ve had so far this year,
even if convection and cloud cover ends up keeping many areas from
reaching heat advisory criteria. For those working or spending
time outdoors, be sure to hydrate regularly, wear light, loose-
fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Primarily SCT VFR conds exp thru the TAF period, with a chance
for brief SCT-BKN IFR cigs between 08-13Z, perhaps accompanied by
MVFR vsbys in FG/BR. Precipitation chcs too low for TAF mention
tomorrow. Expect winds to remain out of the WNW/NW at 7kts or
less.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence AM ceilings.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  91 /  20  40  10   0
Atlanta         71  88  71  90 /  10  50  10   0
Blairsville     64  82  62  85 /  30  70  10   0
Cartersville    68  87  68  90 /  20  70  10   0
Columbus        71  90  71  93 /  20  40  10  10
Gainesville     70  86  68  90 /  20  60   0   0
Macon           69  92  71  92 /  10  30  20  10
Rome            67  85  67  90 /  30  80  10   0
Peachtree City  67  89  69  91 /  10  40  10   0
Vidalia         73  93  74  94 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96