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000
FXUS62 KFFC 091857
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Morning cloud cover has cleared the area leaving sunny skies in its
wake, outside of a few cu that have popped with the afternoon PBL
mixing. Despite relatively light sfc winds, smoke has mostly
cleared, though HRRR smoke model still indicates some smoke in
place through the atmospheric column and we`ve seen a few weather
stations still reporting the occasional haze. This will stay in
place until Canadian airmass pushes out starting tomorrow into
tomorrow night.

Speaking of the Canadian airmass - we have some very unusually dry
air in place across much of the CWA. Tonight`s 00Z sounding will be
interesting to see. HREF ensemble average shows PWATs around 0.4"-
0.6". This would break the all time low PWAT for the date, and is
well below the 10th percentile running average for this time of
year per the (new and improved, go check it out!) SPC sounding
climatology. Dry airmass and clear skies will also contribute to
some very cool temps for June tonight as radiational cooling takes
over, bringing temps well into the 50s across all but the far
southern portions of central Georgia.

Our respite from the heat and humidity is short lived, however.
Tomorrow we see sfc winds swap back to the south as the large upper
level low over the NE begins to meander to the east, away from the
eastern CONUS. Sfc moisture will return, alongside chances of rain,
which should slowly increase through tomorrow night.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

No changes made to the extended forecast. By Sunday the main trough
will have moved well of the east coast into the Atlantic which will
set us up for the pattern ahead which will be more unsettled than
the short term. An upper level low forms over the Great lakes
bringing troughing through the central plains Sunday before the low
deepens and the trough swings eastward into the the southeast and
Georgia on Monday. This upper level feature equates to a cold front
moving through our area Sunday into Monday which during this time of
year is expected to provide some level of forcing that could give us
more organized thunderstorms than the normal summertime pop up
storms. The timing is in favor for this area though for severe
weather as the instability is more prominent during the afternoon
whereas the front is more expected overnight at this time.

Following the frontal passage the low pressure system is expected to
stall in the Canadian Maritimes and the front is also expected to
stall over central and southern Georgia. This will overall put us in
a westerly pattern with moisture being fueled in from this
direction. THe exact positioning of this front will determine how
much rainfall we get through the end of next week. at this time
daily afternoon into evening rain chances and thunderstorms can be
expected for much of next week with QPF value in the 0.5-2" range
for much of the area. MAx temps are expected to stay in the mid
80s for northern Georgia and the upper 80s for central Georgia.
There could be a bit of variation over the next couple of days
depending on where the frontal system stalls out.

Hernandez/01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

VFR through the TAF period. Winds have shifted for the afternoon
the the northwest and will be 7-11 kts with some gusts
occasionally. Some afternoon cu could develop around airfield,
generally above 6000 ft. SKC expected overnight, with winds
shifting back to NE shortly after sundown. Winds will continue
eastward shift, then SE around sunrise, before shifting SW near
16Z tomorrow. Some cu could develop during afternoon again,
generally above 6000 ft.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High confidence all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  87  65  83 /   0   0  10  70
Atlanta         61  88  68  84 /   0   0  20  80
Blairsville     52  81  59  78 /   0   0  10  80
Cartersville    55  88  65  84 /   0   0  20  80
Columbus        63  91  69  87 /   0  10  20  70
Gainesville     57  86  65  82 /   0   0  20  80
Macon           62  91  68  88 /   0  10  20  70
Rome            55  89  65  86 /   0   0  20  80
Peachtree City  58  89  66  85 /   0  10  20  80
Vidalia         64  91  69  91 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk