


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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106 FXUS62 KFFC 200152 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 952 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Forecast remains on track for this evening, with partly cloudy to cloudy and dry conditions to follow tonight. As we approach daybreak, some patchy dense fog development is possible in the wake of this afternoon`s convection. Expect overnight lows to drop into the 60s to lower-70s. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the evening, mainly along and south of the I-85/I-20 corridors. - Warm and mostly dry tomorrow (Friday). A line of convection arcing west to east from Arkansas to Georgia is surging southward at the time of this writing. So far, wind observations associated with this convection across north and central Georgia have been 30-40 mph. Storms have been producing frequent lightning strikes and spurts of heavy rainfall. Barring light stratiform rain on the back-side of the convective cluster or a stray storm, the environment along and north of the I-85 has largely stabilized due to earlier convection. In fact, the latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates a meso-high centered on Alabama -- evidence of the post-convection cold pool. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) remains in place where storms are still pushing east- southeastward. Storms are moving at a decent enough clip (~30 mph) to preclude localized flooding concerns -- not to mention that storms are not training over the same general areas. A weak cold front is progged to push southward overnight and could support some isolated showers across north Georgia. Additionally, areas of fog and mist -- as well as associated patchy low clouds -- are expected across portions of north and central Georgia. Patchy dense fog will be possible. Tomorrow will mark the beginning of a synoptic pattern change that will bring dry conditions for much of the CWA, along with increasing temperatures and humidity. The current forecast has PoPs confined generally along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to Swainsboro, where lingering moisture will be focused along the residual front. A mostly sunny sky will allow temperatures to reach the lower 90s to mid-90s across much of the CWA. Portions of central Georgia -- especially getting closer to south Georgia -- may have heat index values hit the 100-degree mark early to mid-afternoon. Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Key Message: - Conditions this weekend will be relatively dry for mid-June, with isolated showers and thunderstorms being confined to central Georgia on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase once again Tuesday into Wednesday. - More heat builds in and intensifies through early next week with temperatures in the mid 90s across much of the area. Forecast heat index values could reach into the lower 100s. Though some uncertainty exists on reaching these with afternoon storm chances returning. Through the long term period, the pattern aloft will look quite a bit different than what we`ve been seeing over the last week. The upper level trough will continue to move away to the northeast as a broad and stout subtropical ridge builds over the CONUS to the east of the Rockies. This ridge will intensify over the course of the weekend as a mean high of 594-597 mb becomes centered over the Southeast. A warming trend will be ongoing under the influence of the ridge, plenty of sunshine, and surface high pressure centered just off the Carolina coast. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will largely be in the low to mid 90s across the forecast area. A drier airmass will also be in place at the lower levels underneath this ridge behind the frontal boundary stalled in south-central Georgia. Precipitable water values will be on the order of 1.0-1.25 inches this weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will range from 20-30 percent roughly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon on Saturday afternoon, then below 20 percent across the area on Sunday. The ridge axis will gradually shift to the east during the early parts of next week. The heat dome under the ridge will remain in place across the Southeast, and highs will increase to the mid to upper 90s across the majority of the area from Monday through Wednesday. Low-level moisture will also increase early next week, with diurnally driven thunderstorm chances increasing accordingly. The combination of hot temperatures and increasing humidity will allow heat indices to climb into the low 100s. Heat indices could furthermore approach 105 and heat advisory criteria in portions of east Georgia by Tuesday and Wednesday. It is worth noting that model guidance can overestimate high temperatures (and heat indices) this far in advance given difficulties in resolving spotty diurnal convective coverage, associated cloud cover, and cold pool activity. Regardless, it is likely that the weekend and next week will be the hottest stretch we`ve had so far this year, even if convection and cloud cover ends up keeping many areas from reaching heat advisory criteria. For those working or spending time outdoors, be sure to hydrate regularly, wear light, loose- fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade. King && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Primarily SCT VFR conds exp thru the TAF period, with a chance for brief SCT-BKN IFR cigs between 08-13Z, perhaps accompanied by MVFR vsbys in FG/BR. Precipitation chcs too low for TAF mention tomorrow. Expect winds to remain out of the WNW/NW at 7kts or less. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence AM ceilings. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 89 69 91 / 20 40 10 0 Atlanta 71 88 71 90 / 10 50 10 0 Blairsville 64 82 62 85 / 30 70 10 0 Cartersville 68 87 68 90 / 20 70 10 0 Columbus 71 90 71 93 / 20 40 10 10 Gainesville 70 86 68 90 / 20 60 0 0 Macon 69 92 71 92 / 10 30 20 10 Rome 67 85 67 90 / 30 80 10 0 Peachtree City 67 89 69 91 / 10 40 10 0 Vidalia 73 93 74 94 / 10 30 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM....King AVIATION...96