631
FXUS63 KILX 040750
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 2 rounds of storms and showers this afternoon into the overnight
  hours ahead of a passing cold front with another low threat for
  strong-to-severe storms.

- A brief dry period settles in before the potential for rain
  arrives again for the weekend (10-20% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

As a MCV passes through again today, more showers and thunderstorms
could pop up. Today, the shear looks healthier (25-35kts) than
yesterday. This could mean that the storms that do fire up could
live slightly longer. There is a threat of severe weather this
afternoon, with the main hazards being marginally severe hail and
locally damaging winds, but most storms will be of the typical
summer-time pop up storm genre. MCVs are known to be tricky and
could increase the severe threat. There is a 40-60% chance of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon starting after 18z.
Coverage will be of the scattered nature for areas along and north
of I-70. SBCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg support the development of
these storms. The PWAT values this afternoon are 1.6-1.8, which
support that these showers/storms could produce locally heavy
downpours.

The first and second rounds appear to blend together around midnight
as the cold front enters the CWA from the west. The line of showers
and thunderstorms along the front will move through from 05z to 15z
tomorrow. Thunderstorm activity with this round may be limited due
to the convection earlier in the day, if the afternoon convection
pans out like the CAMs (NAM 3km, HRRR, ARW) are depicting. The
potential for a worked over environment to be in place could mean
that along the front there would only be stronger showers without
the presence of thunderstorms. As the line moves across central
Illinois, it breaks up as it passes the I-55 corridor. Many
locations east of I-57 could see no rain out of the overnight system
as it become more scattered.

Behind the cold front, we will see a short period of dry weather as
a high pressure builds over the region. Surface high temperatures
cool slightly but remain around the upper 70s. By Sunday, highs warm
back up to near or just above 80 degrees. There is a very small
chance for rain this weekend (saturday and Sunday), with POPs of 10-
20%, as MCSs are passing to our far south. There is the small chance
that one could drift just far enough north-northeast to affect
central and southeastern Illinois.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, along with
southerly winds that gust to around 20 knots during the day.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into the
evening. An initial wave of storms should develop around 19- 20z
and move from south to north across the area (between 20-00z).
The evolution becomes less certain between 00-06z, and while t-
storms could occur during that period confidence became too low to
keep a prolonged TS mention in the TAFs.

Erwin

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$