Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 151800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Updated forecast today for slower clearing of low clouds and a bit
stronger winds. Strong cold front had recently passed southeast of
Lawrence county and currently extended from 998 mb low pressure
along the Quebec and Ontario province line, to the southeast side
of Indianapolis and approaching Evansville and Paducah. Band of
light to moderate rain showers were se of a Danville to Effingham
line at 1030 am and will exit se of Lawrence county around noon.
An extensive area of MVFR clouds covered IL and into central and
eastern parts of MO/IA and over much of WI. Latest models have
been slower with clearing these low clouds later this afternoon
and early evening. Though expect more breaks to appear in the
overcast during late morning and early afternoon. Strong WNW
winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph was ushering in much cooler
air today. Temps at 1030 am range from 49F at Galesburg to 64F at
the Mount Carmel airport. Not much temp rise today with strong
WNW winds and low clouds being slower to clear out. Highs this
afternoon range from mid 50s over the IL river valley, to mid 60s
by Lawrenceville.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper air and moisture channel data shows main upper short wave
over southern Mn to western IA. Ahead of system, frontal
convection extends southwest from northeast to southwest IL.
Instability has decreased over past 3-4 hours and so showers and
isolated storms all that remain. Front will continue to track to
the east, much as the short range models indicate, finally
clearing central IL by mid morning.

Colder air filtering in today behind front with plenty of moisture
and clouds seen in IR imagery. This will keep temps cool today.
Clearing by evening will allow temps to fall into the 30s over
northwest parts of CWA, so will continue mention of patchy frost
in the northwest CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

For all of the week, high pressure will keep conditions dry.
Finally a system approaches for Saturday. However, models are not
in agreement at all on the timing and strength of system. After
coordination, will keep forecast dry for start of next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cold front has exit southeast of IL at midday taking its showers
out of the state. MVFR ceilings of 2.5-3k ft linger behind the
front and will lift to broken VFR ceilings of 3-4k ft next few
hours. These clouds are breaking up more sw of SPI and SPI could
go scatter at times this afternoon. These clouds extend upstream
into much of WI and eastern half of IA and should clear from nw to
se early this evening between 00-03Z. VFR conditions expected
tonight and Monday across central IL. Breezy NW winds 15-20 kts
and gusts in the 20s will subside to 8-13 kts late this afternoon
and diminish to around 5 kts after dark. Winds to veer west to WSW
during overnight into Monday morning and range from 5-9 kts
Monday morning.





SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
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