060
FXUS62 KGSP 110559
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains across the Gulf Coast to the Georgia
coast through mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday: Any shower or thunderstorm from earlier
across the Upstate has diminished and now we re left with cloud
debris. Expect this to slowly scour out throughout the overnight
period. With drier air in place and some cloud cover overnight,
temperatures should cool to about a category below climatology
outside the mtns, and 1 to 2 categories below climo over the mtns.

Otherwise, positively-tilted broad upper trofing centered just
to our north will continue to gradually move eastward. It should
be moving off the Atlantic Coast as the period is ending early
Wednesday, with heights beginning to rebound over our area. At
the sfc, what`s left of a moist frontal boundary will eventually
get pushed off the Southeast Coast as broad Canadian high pressure
spreads further south and over our region. The high will continue
to spread further SE on Tuesday and and will keep us dry for the
rest of the period. Under mostly sunny skies and weak NLY flow,
temperatures should rebound modestly on Tues with highs expected
to approach climatology across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: High pressure settles in over the area from
the northeast through the period as some weak short waves move
through the NW flow aloft, mainly north of the area. Guidance
continues to show cyclogenesis taking place off the FL Coast
Wednesday with it slowly moving E or NE. However, the global models
continue to show it relatively weak and far enough south and east
for little effect on our weather. The NAM and SREF show it stronger
and far enough north for moisture to move in on southeasterly flow.
Model blend keeps the forecast dry, so have followed that trend for
now, but given the disagreement, the forecast could change. Highs
near normal Wednesday rise 5 degrees on Thursday. Lows start out as
much as 5 degrees below normal and rise about 5 degrees Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Guidance coming into better agreement for
this period. Upper trough moves east Friday with an anti-cyclone
building over the area Saturday. This remains in place Sunday and
moves toward the Carolina coast Monday. During this time a weak
upper low develops in the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the MS Delta
Sunday and moves into the Lower MS Valley Monday. A weak cold front
drops toward the area Friday, across the area Saturday then
dissipates on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
Some weak southerly flow develops between the high center and a weak
surface low associated with the upper low. The guidance agrees on
the weak southerly flow remaining over our area Monday with any
stronger southerly flow, and deeper moisture, to our west closer to
the surface low moving on shore. The result is slowly increasing,
mainly diurnal, PoP through the period. Isolated convection
Saturday, and scattered Sunday and Monday, favoring the mountains
and southerly upslope areas each day. Well above normal highs
expected Friday and Saturday, with mid 90s possible outside of the
mountains, then fall as much as 5 degrees Sunday and a couple more
degrees on Monday. Lows remain above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period as weak high pressure remains in control. Earlier
showers across the Upstate has left the area with lingering cloud
debris, but bases remain 060-100 and should slowly scour out through
daybreak. Winds will favor a north to northwesterly direction
through the overnight and mid-morning hours. Some toggling in the
wind component will be evident by peak heating, with KCLT and KHKY
favoring a north to easterly component, while the Upstate sites
toggle around to more of an east to southerly direction. Model
guidance hint at a lee trough developing during peak heating as
well, so more variability in the wind direction will be present, but
based the 06Z TAFs on the current forecast. Otherwise, a few fair
weather cu may develop during the afternoon, so included FEW050 at
all TAF sites through 00Z Wednesday. Winds go light and variable
under mostly clear skies tonight. Some hints of mountain valley fog
is present overnight Tuesday, which may need to be included at KAVL
in the last line of the 12Z update.

Outlook: Sfc high pressure will remain over the area through at
least mid-week with little chance for convection and/or flight
restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC