Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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060 FXUS62 KGSP 110559 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 159 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front remains across the Gulf Coast to the Georgia coast through mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday: Any shower or thunderstorm from earlier across the Upstate has diminished and now we re left with cloud debris. Expect this to slowly scour out throughout the overnight period. With drier air in place and some cloud cover overnight, temperatures should cool to about a category below climatology outside the mtns, and 1 to 2 categories below climo over the mtns. Otherwise, positively-tilted broad upper trofing centered just to our north will continue to gradually move eastward. It should be moving off the Atlantic Coast as the period is ending early Wednesday, with heights beginning to rebound over our area. At the sfc, what`s left of a moist frontal boundary will eventually get pushed off the Southeast Coast as broad Canadian high pressure spreads further south and over our region. The high will continue to spread further SE on Tuesday and and will keep us dry for the rest of the period. Under mostly sunny skies and weak NLY flow, temperatures should rebound modestly on Tues with highs expected to approach climatology across the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday: High pressure settles in over the area from the northeast through the period as some weak short waves move through the NW flow aloft, mainly north of the area. Guidance continues to show cyclogenesis taking place off the FL Coast Wednesday with it slowly moving E or NE. However, the global models continue to show it relatively weak and far enough south and east for little effect on our weather. The NAM and SREF show it stronger and far enough north for moisture to move in on southeasterly flow. Model blend keeps the forecast dry, so have followed that trend for now, but given the disagreement, the forecast could change. Highs near normal Wednesday rise 5 degrees on Thursday. Lows start out as much as 5 degrees below normal and rise about 5 degrees Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Guidance coming into better agreement for this period. Upper trough moves east Friday with an anti-cyclone building over the area Saturday. This remains in place Sunday and moves toward the Carolina coast Monday. During this time a weak upper low develops in the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the MS Delta Sunday and moves into the Lower MS Valley Monday. A weak cold front drops toward the area Friday, across the area Saturday then dissipates on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northeast. Some weak southerly flow develops between the high center and a weak surface low associated with the upper low. The guidance agrees on the weak southerly flow remaining over our area Monday with any stronger southerly flow, and deeper moisture, to our west closer to the surface low moving on shore. The result is slowly increasing, mainly diurnal, PoP through the period. Isolated convection Saturday, and scattered Sunday and Monday, favoring the mountains and southerly upslope areas each day. Well above normal highs expected Friday and Saturday, with mid 90s possible outside of the mountains, then fall as much as 5 degrees Sunday and a couple more degrees on Monday. Lows remain above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as weak high pressure remains in control. Earlier showers across the Upstate has left the area with lingering cloud debris, but bases remain 060-100 and should slowly scour out through daybreak. Winds will favor a north to northwesterly direction through the overnight and mid-morning hours. Some toggling in the wind component will be evident by peak heating, with KCLT and KHKY favoring a north to easterly component, while the Upstate sites toggle around to more of an east to southerly direction. Model guidance hint at a lee trough developing during peak heating as well, so more variability in the wind direction will be present, but based the 06Z TAFs on the current forecast. Otherwise, a few fair weather cu may develop during the afternoon, so included FEW050 at all TAF sites through 00Z Wednesday. Winds go light and variable under mostly clear skies tonight. Some hints of mountain valley fog is present overnight Tuesday, which may need to be included at KAVL in the last line of the 12Z update. Outlook: Sfc high pressure will remain over the area through at least mid-week with little chance for convection and/or flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...CAC