379
FXUS62 KGSP 131410
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1010 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level
ridge builds into our region from the west.  There may be a brief
afternoon ridgetop shower or storm in the mountains.  Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next
week as a weak cold front approaches from the north.  The hottest
days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat should
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM Update...no major changes made to the going fcst. Baggy ulvl
trof continues to work east as deep layered subsidence increases.
Temp curves look good and insol will remain high outside most mtn
areas where llvl StCu lingers.

Upper-level shortwave currently situated over the Southeast via mid-
level WV imagery will shift offshore during the daytime period,
while interacting with a disturbance that is highlighted by NHC. No
impacts are expected as the associated cirrus should gradually clear
from west to east through the morning and afternoon hours, leading
to maximized insolation at the surface during peak heating. With
warm air aloft still in place and influence from a weak surface
ridge, expect temperatures to rise well into the 80s, with a few
lower 90s in locations south and east of the I-85 corridor. Despite
a mid-level subsidence inversion in place, providing a hostile
environment for convective initiation, CAMs continue to support the
idea of enough mechanical lift to overcome the cap to produce
ridgetop showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. Kept
mentionable PoPs for this development, but very weak shear
parameters would suggest that these storms won`t budge much and
should have a hard time moving anywhere outside of the mountains.
Modest mixing within the boundary layer should place dewpoints in
the upper 50s to lower 60s to help keep heat indices at bay. Placed
between the exiting shortwave and an encroaching cold front from the
northeast Thursday night will keep the sensible weather quiet, with
some mix of cloudiness across the CFWA. Overnight lows are
forecasted to be near-normal as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 am EDT Thursday: An anticyclone will build into the region
from the southwest through the short term, resulting in a generally
hot and continued mostly dry period. With a short wave trough
forecast to pass north of the region on Friday, a weak boundary is
forecast to cross the CWA during the afternoon and evening, but will
interact with an environment that will not be especially favorable
for deep convection due to warm temperatures aloft and weak capping.
Friday PoPs will therefore be limited to slight chances for diurnal
ridge top showers and storms. Saturday will not be much more (or
less) favorable for convection than on Friday, and PoPs are once
again limited to slight chances for a few ridgetop cells during the
afternoon/evening. Temperatures are forecast at around 5 degrees
above climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 am EDT Thursday: An upper anticyclone is forecast to
steadily lift into the Northeast early in the new work week,
establishing a deep/weak easterly flow across our forecast area.
This will result in increased moisture and improved chances for
diurnal convection throughout the extended. However, "improved" is a
relative term, as current global model guidance suggests that
diurnal convection will merely by typical for this time of year,
with widely scattered (30-40 PoPs) activity expected across the
mountains, and isolated showers and storms forecast across the
remainder of the area. Otherwise, temperatures will moderate,
although still likely remaining a little above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. Mid-level (060-080) clouds are expanding
across the western zones and have mention in the prevailing lines at
all terminals. High clouds will continue to roam overhead through
the daytime period with a few fair weather cu develop underneath
during peak heating. A few ridgetop showers/storms are possible
across the NC mountains, but confidence is too low at this time for
a mention at KAVL. Otherwise, winds remain light and variable
overnight with winds picking up out of the east to southeast
tomorrow (4-8 kts).

Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the end
of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight
restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC