Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 040930
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
230 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STRONG NORTH TO
SOUTH JET IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING AT
THE MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES
AT 2AM ARE IN THE TEENS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPS
THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DECENT MIXING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 30S...WITH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS NEAR 40 DEGREES DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS STILL
LOOKING TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE THE
SNOW SHOWERS PASS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF PASSES THROUGH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF BRINGING MILD TEMPS
TO THE REGION. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR -SN. SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN WINDY AND COOLER...WITH MOST AREAS DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN
IN THE BLKHLS. THE STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR -SN MAINLY
AROUND THE BLKHLS. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON


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