Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 231018
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
318 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS MOSTLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO. TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY
LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ERODE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND BRING MILDER AIR IN. THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE TREND OF
LATE WILL PERSIST AS WARMER AIR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS
REPLACED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE SUNNY WITH INCREASING WINDS IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HELPING TO BRING THE WARMER AIR IN.
HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S...SOME UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
TONIGHT...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS REMAINING BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY AS NEXT ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST SD LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
BE MOSTLY LACKING AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF
SNOWFALL FROM FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO CENTRAL SD
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. AN AREA OF 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
WHERE THIS BAND TRACKS. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IN
OUR AREA WOULD BE FROM LEMMON TO WINNER...BUT IT COULD JUST AS
EASILY STAY EAST OF THE CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW LOOK LIKELY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS ON WED WITH
GUSTY NLY WINDS...WITH SUFFICIENT JET ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE WDSPRD LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACRS NERN WY AND FAR WRN
WHERE A COUPLE INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE. UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE NRN
BLKHLS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS. SNOW WILL END BY THURSDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. OUR REGION THEN BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A SPLIT FLOW TROF FOR
SATURDAY...WITH JET ENERGY ROUNDING A NEARLY CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION EXTENDING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR SRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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