Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 061725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE RIDGE FROM TIME TO TIME.
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS OR PARTS OF NERN WY THIS AFTN/EVEN
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP OVER PARTS
OF NERN WY AND SWRN-SC SD...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION AND A COOL FRONT EVENTUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE OVER THE
UPPER PATTERN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF A
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26






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