Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 140534
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1034 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Winds have decoupled across the CWA...allowing them to fall into
the 5 to 10kt range for the remainder of the evening. A few high
clouds spilling over the Pac NW ridge are also dissipating as they
drift south into wrn SD. Overall, inherited fcst in fine shape
with only minor hourly tweaks to temp/dwpt/wind grids for reality
sake. Tuesday appears to be another nice day across wrn SD with
perhaps not so much wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 148 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Upper level analysis shows a ridge over the west coast, and a low
over southern AZ/NM. Skies are mostly sunny across the northern
plains. With a surface trough over the eastern Dakotas, winds
across the CWA are northwesterly at 15-20 kts. Temperatures are
mainly in the 40s, with some 50s over the eastern foothills.

Breezy northwest winds will continue tonight into Tuesday. Under
mostly clear skies, lows tonight will be in the 20s. Highs Tuesday
will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

Mild and dry weather will continue through the week, as
the upper ridge slowly transitions eastward. Midweek WAA will result
in well above average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, with
highs in the 50s and 60s. Some places may approach the lower 70s on
Thursday. Toward the end of the work week into the weekend, upper
flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a Pacific trough. A weak
wave will bring slightly cooler, but still above average,
temperatures for the weekend. Models are showing a stronger wave for
early next week, possibly bringing some rain/snow to the region.
However, models are still inconsistent with the track, timing, and
strength of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1034 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conds are expected through the period for the
terminal locations. Area of sct-bkn mid cloud sliding down through
ern MT may affect the KGCC terminal toward 12z. However the cloud
shield is slowy eroding on the edges. Winds look to be light through
16z before picking back up for the aftn periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 148 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

With well above average temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday, min RH values will dip into the teens and 20s, drier on
Thursday. Winds will be fairly light for the most part, but gusty
southwest winds over parts of northeastern WY (where min RH will be
15-20%) may raise fire weather concerns.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hintz
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Hintz
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie


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