Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 171808 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The short term concerns convective trends today and tonight.

Overall models in general agreement in handling the overall
development of the incoming Montana short wave. Mid level showers
already working across western South Dakota. Short range hires
solutions bring this into western MN later this morning and then
to eastern MN by late afternoon. It does appear to weaken some
as it works east. The 00z NAM came in a little slower and deeper
with the short wave...with the GFS pretty similar to previous
runs. Will keep pops into categorical range out west into the
afternoon and then spread higher end likely PoPs over the area
into tonight. Most areas should see some QPF as this moves through
into tonight. Instability is not that great so will keep chance
of thunder going for now. It should be highly diurnal in nature
once it does develop...mainly to the west this afternoon and then
spreading east into the evening. Cloud cover should once again
fill in during the morning and should remain mainly cloudy into
tonight as the upper trough moves through. Temperatures will
struggle to warm through the 70s most areas today...and should
remain in the 55 to 60 degree range tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The period will commence with a potent cold front east of the
area, from central MI through western IN along the western Ohio
River into northern AR. Aloft, a large rotating upper level low
over western Ontario province will remain in place, with several
shortwave trough disturbances swinging around the western and
southern peripheries of the low. While fairly deep moisture will
remain in place Sunday into Sunday night, the surface influence
will shift from the departing cold front to incoming high
pressure, thus any shot at appreciable precipitation will come
from the upper level shortwaves. As such, the best chances for
precipitation will be seen in far eastern portions of the WFO MPX
coverage area, with chances diminishing going westward through MN.
This upper level low will continue to rotate in place through late
day Monday, keeping the chances for any precipitation in northern
and eastern portions of the coverage area. Thunder chances will be
fairly limited due to the lack of instability and low-level
features but non-zero owing to the upper low so have kept some
mention in the forecast.

Tuesday looks to feature dry conditions as the last of the upper
level waves will push through the region Monday night and be
followed by dry northwest flow aloft Tuesday into Tuesday night. A
weak warm-frontal feature looks to slide eastward across the
international border Wednesday, bringing isolated-at-best coverage
for precipitation Wednesday but this will be followed by a more
organized system for Thursday which looks to have not only fairly
good precipitation coverage but also an uptick in instability due
to the area being warm-sectored before the system`s arrival and
some modest upper level support as flow transitions from zonal to
having a lagging upper level low moving through the region by
Friday morning. So, overall, not a lot of QPF by any means
(potentially only up to around a quarter inch for most of the
coverage area through the week) nor many chances for organized
thunderstorms aside from Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread later this
afternoon across MN and spread east into WI this evening. Best
chance for TS will be early this evening with a gradual weakening
trend from mid evening onward. VFR conditions expected until later
tonight when some MVFR cigs move in. Those cigs should lift by
late morning Sunday.

KMSP...Showers will begin arriving early evening, with TS
possible mainly from 23-02Z. MVFR cigs then likely late tonight
before improving Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR/Chc TSRA. Wind NW 10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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