Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 182023
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Weak sfc trough stretches from North Dakota through the western high
plains this afternoon. Downstream towards northeast Kansas,
southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph have raised temps to the middle 80s
this afternoon.

As the peak heating period winds down this evening, I expect winds
to diminish underneath mostly clear skies. Weak upper wave passes
over the northern plains tonight, veering and increasing westerly
flow above the inversion. This will shift the sfc trough axis
gradually east tomorrow afternoon, veering winds to the west over
north central areas. Meanwhile ahead of the boundary, 925 mb temps
increase between 25 and 30C during the afternoon with south winds at
10 to 15 mph. These temps are likely to mix down towards the sfc,
raising highs well above normal into the lower 90s. Given that
dewpoints peak in the lower 70s, there may be a few hours of heat
indices in the 95 to 100 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Mid-level ridging will continue to maintain is presence across the
central plains through midweek. 850MB temperatures will continue to
remain in the low to middle 20s degrees C, which translates to 80s
and 90s for high temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Heat indices
are expected to touch the middle and upper 90s on Tuesday as surface
dew points remain in the lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Wednesday afternoon into the day on Thursday. The remnants
of Tropical Storm Paine in the Eastern Pacific will traverse
portions of the central and northern plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Current guidance suggests the bulk of the remnants will stay north
of the outlook area. A weak cold front will stall across central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and lift northward as warm front on
Friday. A deep trough across the western CONUS will slowly progress
eastward throughout the weekend. Lead shortwaves will provide shower
and thunderstorm chances beginning Friday night and continuing into
Saturday. Will have to monitor the potential for a few stronger
storms Saturday afternoon as mid-level flow increase to near 50
knots, producing 30-40 knots of deep layer shear. A strong cold
front will sweep across the area on Sunday; sparking thunderstorms
across the area. Much drier air will infiltrate the area behind the
front, with dew points in the 40s and 50s!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

VFR prevails at terminals as light southerly winds near 10 kts become
light aft 00Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Prieto



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