Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY STORMS MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS
IS MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST KS AND THE OTHER WAS IN NORTH
CENTRAL KS A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STAY
OVER THE AREA OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SO CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ON TOP
OF THE SPREADING COLD POOLS. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL
RATHER HIGH SO ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY COLLAPSE CAUSING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. REMNANT OUTFLOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
70 EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MODELS STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND MIXING THAT IS CAUSING THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
UNCAPPED.


LATER TODAY THE FORECAST GETS RATHER COMPLICATED WITH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE STORMS IN THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE COULD SHIELD MOVING THROUGH WHICH KS,
WHICH COULD LAST INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IF THEY ARE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. AS FOR NOW FAR NORTHERN KS APPEARS TO STAY COOL
ENOUGH TO AVOID ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 MAY
REACH HEAT INDICES OF 105. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO IF AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STAY CAPPED FROM ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. THEY ALSO AGREE THAT SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP
IN SOUTHERN NE AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO POSSIBLY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70 BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER CLUSTER MAY FORM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS
DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE VERY HIGH AND DEEP LAYER COULD APPROACH 30-
40 KTS, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, WHILE THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS VERY LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTHERN KS AND THE CHANCES BECOME LESS FURTHER SOUTH. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.75 TO 2.25 INCHES, WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MINOR UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT THE HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA SHOW
DEEPER MIXING TO AROUND 820MB...THUS DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE MID
60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY THEN WARM
IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES. THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL MOSTLY LIKELY
KEEP MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM
103 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS MAY LEAD TO DEEPER
MIXING AND LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHS MAY REACH 98 TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA, THE HEAT INDICES MAY ACTUALLY STAY BELOW 105 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING LOW-
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND ASCENT ON THE SOUTHER EDGE OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOLER AND DRIER AS A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS RIVER
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWER RH`S.

SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
PERSISTENTLY INDICATING ISOLATED TSRA BEING POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AT
KMHK AND 21Z AT KTOP/KFOE, EXITING EAST BY 01Z. VCTS SEEMED TO BE
THE BEST ROUTE FOR THE TIME BEING WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP OVERNIGHT
BEFORE ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. UNLESS A HEAVIER
SHOWER IMPACTS TERMINALS DIRECTLY, DO NOT EXPECT A CATEGORY
IMPACT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ026-035>040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN



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