Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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018
FXUS63 KTOP 241718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours. A longer wave length
upper level trough across the east central conus will deepen this
afternoon as a upper trough digs southeast from south central Canada
into the Great Lakes States.

The central plains will be under northwesterly flow aloft. A broad
surface high pressure ridge across western NE and northwest KS early
this morning and will shift southeast across the state this
afternoon and into Tonight. Therefore, surface winds will be under
10 MPH from the northwest.

Highs Today will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tonight will
be in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A series of shortwaves will track over the Great Lakes region each
pushing a weak front into the area with the first one arriving on
Sunday morning. Model consensus is that the front will stall out
over portions of southeast and central KS Sunday afternoon and
evening. Soundings show that surface heating will allow the cap to
erode and any lift provided by the front could support some
precipitation. The cape during this time frame is only expected to
be a few hundred j/kg so it should mainly be showers. Sunday night
isentropic lift increases over the area therefore additional
development continues overnight. That front becomes diffuse ahead of
the next front due to arrive during the day Monday. The models are
showing an increase in the surface dew points and if skies can clear
out then the instability may support a few storms. Although the mid
level lapse rates are not steep so do not expect much cape so it
should be predominately showers along that front as it pushes
southward. Also, a vort max on the southern extent of the mid level
trough may provide additional large scale lift.

The flow aloft becomes more zonal and on Tuesday a shortwave
tracks over the northern plains. The resulting cold front mainly
stays over the high plains and becomes the focus for convection.
As of now it appears whatever develops along that front could have
trouble reaching our area Tuesday night. The GFS is the most
aggressive keeping the precipitation going overnight, which could
be due to support from a vort max lifting out over KS within the
trough axis. There is the potential for additional vort maxes
embedded within the flow aloft so the pops hang around through
Wednesday. The next best chance for storms is late Thursday as a
strong cold front pushes through the area. These storms have the
potential to be strong given the instability and shear forecasted
by the models. Same story behind this front as several embedded
waves bring the chances for showers and storms into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with winds remaining less than 10kts generally from the north
northwest.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke



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