Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 032316
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
516 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions the entire period with dry air and decreasing lift.
Such minor concern with radiational ground fog at this point that
it has been left out of the TAFs.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake


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