Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKELY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  88  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  63  84  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  58  81  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  57  82  62  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJM


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