Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291830
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAD INCREASED POPS SOME
THIS MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS OCCURRING. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH ONE INCH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  56  78 /  40  20  10  30
INL  50  78  52  78 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  56  79  57  81 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  52  77  53  79 /  40  20  10  40
ASX  50  75  53  76 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING






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