000
FXUS63 KDLH 151814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
114 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITONS AT TAF SITES EXPECT FOR LIFR CIGS
AT HYR. THIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH NE MN ATTM WITH MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

UPDATE...
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS THIS
MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONE
HAS CLOSED OFF OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING..WITH DRY SLOT/PV
LOBE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA..BUT WITH THE MAIN PUSH ON THE DRY SLOT BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING..THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SLOWED OR EVEN STALLED
ACROSS THE DLH CWA AS A SECONDARY WAVE ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS.

AN AXIS OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALL MORNING FROM NRN SD INTO
WRN MN. THESE SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED..AND HAVE BEEN LOCATED ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL PV LOBE..AND ALSO APPEAR TO BE
GETTING SOME ASSISTANCE IN MAINTENANCE FROM MID LEVEL FGEN. OVER
THE PAST HOUR..THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE JUST TO
THE SW OF THE BRAINERD AREA..AS A FLUX OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THIS UVM FORCING ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA OF LARGE MCS IN THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND TWO FACTORS 1)
HOW FAR NORTH/EAST WILL THE EXISTING SHOWERS PERSIST..AND 2) WILL
THERE BE ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MN WHERE STRONGER FLOW
AND SUN WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING ALONG NORTHERN END OF
INSTABILITY AXIS.

THERE IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIFFERENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE..WITH SOME MODELS WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS THE NORTH..WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP QPF. SIMILAR SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR WANTS TO
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON
EVOLVING OUT OF THE ONGOING MCS OVER SRN MN/NRN IA. IF ANYTHING
WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH..DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT AND SOME
ORGANIZATION FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS.

FOR NOW..WE HAVE EXPANDED POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT. BUT..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF NW WI..WE HAVE
KEPT THEM 15-25 PERCENT FOR NOW. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
HOWEVER..WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD EVEN MORE ACROSS WRN/SW
PARTS OF THE CWA. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY COVER
AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLOWER CLEARING
TREND IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW PART OF THE CWA. ALSO
HELD ON TO EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OVER LK SUPERIOR UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN PRESSURE RISE CENTER FINALLY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS. UNTIL THEN..EAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
40S ARE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
LAKE. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE
ARROWHEAD SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THERE WERE SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS OUT
THERE...AND THEY MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z.

ANOTHER AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL FGEN. THE RAP WAS DOING AN DECENT JOB DEPICTING THESE
SHOWERS...AND THEY MAY IMPACT KBRD/KHIB/KDLH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...AND KHYR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID NOT ADD A MENTION AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE TAF ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES ON WHEN THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

CURRENT...WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BDRY. AN AREA OF CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM
THE ARROWHEAD TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF MID MORNING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 70H THETAE RIDGE. A FEW STORMS
HAVE PUSHED THEIR 50DBZ CORES TO 30/33K FT OVER CENTRAL ST LOUIS
COUNTY BUT ONLY PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THIS TIME. INITIAL BAND
OF CONVECTION HAS OUTRUN BEST THERMODYNAMICS WITH A FEW CELLS
REDEVELOPING OVER WRN CWA CLOSER TO ACTUAL FRONTAL BDRY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM MID 60S OVER SRN TIER OF CWA TO 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...FRNTL BDRY WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. LINGERING RW/TRW ARE POSSIBLE FROM ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN
WISCONSIN. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE
CLIMO VALUES. HI RES DLHWRF SHOWS A PUSH OF WARMER OFFSHORE FLOW
LATE TODAY AFTER COOLER ONSHORE FLOW INITIALLY.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...FRNTL BDRY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
CWA TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING INCREASES TEMPORARILY. AN
ELONGATED MID LVL TROF NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOMORROW. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ACT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RW/TRW SUNDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE MN ZONES. MDLS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PUSHES. HAVE OPTED FOR THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM AND THE MORE NRN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
ECMWF. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO LOW 80S ACROSS SRN CWA WITH MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL BE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL EXTEND NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH IT MOVING EAST AND FLATTENING BY FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOW POPS INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ON RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OUT
IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES MONDAY...AND WARMING TO 75
TO 80 BY THURSDAY.

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KBRD WHERE THE THUNDER THREAT IS
MINIMAL. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST...SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
DAY SAT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  78  53 /  30  20  20  50
INL  77  50  77  49 /  20  20  40  40
BRD  77  55  80  57 /  40  10  10  30
HYR  77  54  81  55 /  20  20  10  50
ASX  72  52  77  52 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART