Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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040
FXUS63 KDLH 030850
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
350 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN...AND PRECIPITATION/THUNDER
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST TIP OF MN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A SHORT WAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION WIND SHIFT AND MID LEVEL
COOLING...WILL DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH THE
FRONT TO PRODUCT THUNDER...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY
AIR MASS. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES. LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING WHERE MID LEVEL RH IS
MOST FAVORABLE. NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS AT LUT/ELO SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID LEVEL SATURATION BETWEEN 800-500HPA AND 200-300 J/KJ OF
FCST PARCEL CAPE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO >500 J/KG.

THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALLOW WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HAVE
INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM RH THIS
AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RH WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE BRAINERD LAKES TO GRAND RAPIDS REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS RIDGE
WILL MOVE A BIT TOWARD THE EAST...BUT WILL THEN BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS NORTHERN WAVE WILL CARVE OUT AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS MUCH OF
ONTARIO. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO BE QUITE WARM ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH FRIDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS DO LOOK RATHER DRY...BUT WE ARE JUST NOT
COMFORTABLE HAVING A DRY FORECAST SO ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...EVEN AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS TEMPERATURES INLAND WARM INTO THE MID
SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES.

WE CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY OUR FAR
NORTHEAST CWA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THAT AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS. WE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE
LOWER EIGHTIES. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHWEST ONTARIO
FRIDAY INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE GEM/GFS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS IN THE ARROWHEAD ON
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
IN. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 12C TO 15C FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WE LINGER SOME POPS ON SATURDAY AND WENT DRY SUNDAY. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ONLY VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AS IT
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  36  55  34 /  20  10   0  10
INL  63  33  58  37 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  70  39  62  38 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  68  37  57  33 /  50  20   0  10
ASX  66  38  53  34 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE/DAP



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