Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291140 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY
EXTENDING FROM A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST TO NEAR PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO.  A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH BROUGHT SOME
STRONGER STORMS TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.  FRONTOGENESIS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT.  AS
OF 3 AM...THUNDER APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT EXPECT THAT TO SPREAD UP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING...AND CONTINUE UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING.  WE GET SOME WEAK
CAPE UP INTO NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHEAR IS
ALSO PRETTY WEAK AN EXPECT STORMS TO BE MAINLY GARDEN VARIETY...WITH
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PUTTING OUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
HAS MADE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  THEN...ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS ALREADY RAINING...COOL IN THE MORNING AND THEN
A SMALL BUMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEAR.  BEHIND THE FRONT
WE MAY ONLY GET INTO THE MID 50S...BUT 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE POSSIBLE
FOR NW WISCONSIN.  TONIGHT THE CLEARING SKIES WOULD NORMALLY PUT US
AT RISK OF RADIATING OUT...BUT THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH
THAT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING.  WITH THAT SAID...PLACES
THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM THE WIND UP AROUND KINL MAY GET SOME PATCHY
FROST TONIGHT...AND HAVE PUT THAT INTO THE FORECAST AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.  WILL LEAVE IT TO THE DAY SHIFT
TO EVALUATE WHETHER WE NEED AN ADVISORY OR NOT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO 2 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND SE FLOW WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SO FROST IS
LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LIKELY HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST...AND IN RETURN SUPPRESS THE
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OR FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS
INDICATED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE AN INGREDIENT
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NW
WISCONSIN AND NE MINNESOTA TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NNW. THE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER OUT
TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KHYR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE STORMS AFFECTING KDLH. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NW WISCONSIN.

NORTHERLY TO NNW WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  41  57  35 /  80   0   0   0
INL  56  35  55  31 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  63  41  60  37 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  72  43  59  30 /  90  30   0   0
ASX  70  42  55  32 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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