Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291500 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1000 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LARGE PWATS OF OVER AN INCH IN THE
STRONG FGEN AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MEAN THAT MORE RAIN AND
STORMS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS LINGER A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO 2 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND SE FLOW WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 4 DEGREES
CELSIUS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SO FROST IS
LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LIKELY HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SINCE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST...AND IN RETURN SUPPRESS THE
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OR FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS
INDICATED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE AN INGREDIENT
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NW
WISCONSIN AND NE MINNESOTA TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NNW. THE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTER OUT
TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KHYR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE STORMS AFFECTING KDLH. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NW WISCONSIN.

NORTHERLY TO NNW WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  41  57  35 /  80   0   0   0
INL  57  35  55  31 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  63  41  60  37 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  72  43  59  30 /  90  30   0   0
ASX  71  42  55  32 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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