Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 272033
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET..MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE H85
CLOSED LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION TRANSLATES INTO FAR NW MINNESOTA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A COOL WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVER MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER PRICE COUNTY IN WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
WHERE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. A BETTER CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY THAT WILL RETURN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHLAND
TO END THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
ON MONDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
TERMINALS...HIB...DLH AND HYR THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A VCTS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT BECAUSE OF THE
SPOTTY NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AROUND 01Z ALONG WITH THE WINDS. A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SOME IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT DLH
AND HYR. FOR NOW...HAVE 6SM BR AT BOTH LOCATIONS WITH A SCT DECK OF
STRATUS POSSIBLE AT DULUTH. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS AT BRD AT HYR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  63  49  65 /  10  30  70  60
INL  46  72  49  59 /  40  70  70  10
BRD  55  78  59  66 /  20  40  70  50
HYR  48  81  60  70 /  20  20  70  80
ASX  44  69  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK






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