000
FXUS63 KDLH 270805
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE PRECIP TODAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NC MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO BORDER NEAR INL. MODELS ARE SIMILAR
IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATER THIS MORNING AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH. IT WILL BE IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL BE OFF AND ON TODAY ACROSS NE MN
AND NW WI WITH THE PRECIP ENDING IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DLH BY 218Z AND OUT OF NW WI BY
00Z. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW THEIR NORMALS.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...DRIER CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AS OF MONDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH LIGHT NW FLOW. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PATTERN MIGHT NOT BREAK UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL RETREAT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...AND THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE
RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN US UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIGHTLY
SHIFT INTO THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST. THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY SEE DRY
AND WARM WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SUNDAY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  54  75  55 /  60  10  10  10
INL  72  50  75  52 /  60  10  10  10
BRD  73  53  74  54 /  40  10   0   0
HYR  70  47  74  52 /  60  10  10  10
ASX  69  50  75  53 /  60  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI