Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 280543 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT WEATHER AND SHORT TERM MODEL
FORECASTS. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE TWIN
PORTS 2-4 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT AREA OF TSTMS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG WARM FRONT STRETCHING ALONG
THAT AREA. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT IS IN NW MN SLOWLY SLIDING SE. RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ENDING INT HE AFTERNOON WEST TO EAST. FOG
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WET CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS AFTERNOON
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITH A 90KT JET BEHIND IT IS DRIVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE
STORMS OVER THERE. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
YOU GO THOUGH...WE LOSE SHEAR ALMOST ENTIRELY...AND INSTABILITY
WEAKENS AS WELL. THUS...WHILE WE ARE GETTING STORMS OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...THEY ARE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAYS STORMS AND ARE
PULSING AIRMASS TYPE STORMS AND NOT THE MUCH STRONGER STORMS
MOVING INTO/INITIATING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 4PM. THIS
WILL KEEP POPS VERY HIGH THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DIVES
ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MID EVENING...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR
THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...SHIFTING
EAST TO ALSO AFFECT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY. AGAIN...POPS
REMAIN HIGH END LIKELY IF NOT CATEGORICAL FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SUNDAY TO BE COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH ALL THE
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
THE ARROWHEAD MONDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS ABOVE CONSENSUS BLENDS AS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE SUPPORTING A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WAVE
THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
VARIES. FELT THAT CHANCE POPS WAS THE BEST OF ALL POSSIBLE ANSWERS
AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON
LOCATION...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT CONCERNS WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE
POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH AM MINIMUMS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW
80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS SETS UP FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...
AND REACH WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z MONDAY. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE LIKELY
PLUMMETING CIGS AND DEVELOPING FOG LATER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
THAT MOST SITES WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
BOUNCING BACK TO VFR GENERALLY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  79  55  70 /  20  60  20  10
INL  57  82  51  73 /  20  40  10  10
BRD  59  84  56  77 /  10  50  10  10
HYR  56  77  55  73 /  30  70  30  10
ASX  55  77  52  69 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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