Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252113
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
413 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW NOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.  THE MAIN COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD DECK MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER WEST WINDS...DRIER
DEWPOINTS AND THE CLOUD DECK.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE
CLOUD COVER TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA...AND LINGER
MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD DESPITE
THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.  TUESDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY.  GOOD MIXING WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...FOR A COOL AND REFRESHING DAY AFTER THE
RECENT MUGGINESS.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  CURRENTLY HAVE MIN TEMPS DOWN AROUND 40
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND MID AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.  WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT COMBINES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO GIVE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEP LAYER SATURATION OR LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS OVER SRN/SERN
CWA THUR/EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK MID LVL TROF ADVECTS EAST. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BASED ON THE PROSPECT OF SOME MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM A SRN BRANCH SYSTEM OVER THE CTRL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO TREND TOWARDS DRIER WX
WITH THE NEXT FEW MDL CYCLES. GFS APPEARS TO PLAY OUTLIER ROLE IN
TAKING A VERY LARGE PRECIP AREA INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY. THIS IS A
LARGE SHIFT NORTH COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE AND HAVE NOT
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT A FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS AND RW/TRW INTO THE NORTHLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SETTING UP AN EASTERLY BDRY LYR FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MDLS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT A
DEVELOPING NRN PLAINS SFC LOW/FRONTAL BDRY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY. POPS ARE INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO
THIS SYSTEM. BRISK EASTERLY WIND MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TWO MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE IN THIS PERIOD. FIRST..A LARGE AREA OF POST
FRONTAL STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS IS ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS
WRN CWA. SECOND...GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER
OCCURS IN MIXING LAYER LEADING TO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AT TIMES.
LATEST FCST SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WILL AFFECT KINL/KHIB/KDLH
TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER PROB FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECTING MAJORITY OF GUSTY WIND TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z IN MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  65  50  71 /   0   0  10   0
INL  45  63  39  71 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  48  68  50  74 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  50  67  47  72 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  52  69  51  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON







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