Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171757 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1157 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A surface low over Saskatchewan this morning has extended a warm
front southeast across eastern North Dakota to southwestern
Minnesota as of early this morning. A cold front extends to the
southwest to western Montana. The surface low is expected to
gradually move east today and tonight, moving across northern
Manitoba before getting to Ontario Saturday. This low will stay
well north of the forecast area, and we will only be on the
southern fringes of the better dynamics. The warm front will
slowly ease across us today, before being followed by a cold front
tonight. This will produce a very warm day across the forecast
area today, with high temperatures rising into the 40s and even
low 50 for many locations. Have gone on the warm end of guidance
for today, but even so it is possible that our dark trees and the
south winds with dry warm air advection going on aloft that we
could get even warmer. We are going to be melting snow like mad
today, which is going to produce more low level moisture, which
may hold temperatures back. Have gone on the warm end of guidance
in our south, with near to just above where the snow is deeper
farther north. We are a few degrees shy in the current forecast,
but have included record highs and warm lows for the next couple
days for reference. See climate section below. The melting snow
and light winds expected tonight is going to make us very
vulnerable to fog tonight. Most of the models are depicting a
shallow inversion near the surface overnight tonight which does
indicate stratus formation, but they tend to over do it, and would
prefer to wait until conditions are more favorable, as the cold
front moving through should help keep it away. Have included fog
in the forecast for now, but we may need to add some stratus in
later. Saturday the cold front moves quickly off to the east, with
ridging building into the area from the west. This may aid
tonight`s fog into becoming stratus or having very slow clearing,
and we have some bust potential for high temperatures. Where we
break out into some sunshine we could be back into the 40s again,
but if not we`ll be in the 30s to low 40s. For now have gone
closer to the consensus, and we will have to monitor trends in low
clouds before breaking either way.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Upper level ridging will again take hold across the region by
Saturday night, as the upper level shortwave departs to the east.
A major longwave trough moving into the Desert Southwest and into
the Baja region will eventually attempt to phase with northern
stream energy by Monday, allowing a feed of moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. Rain should become widespread by Monday afternoon, and
continue into Monday night, before moving into the Great Lakes
region. Rainfall amounts on the order of a quarter to half inch
should be common, with localized higher amounts. Previous shift
introduced the possibility of some thunder across mainly southern
portions of the region, and that appears reasonable given some
marginal instability along and in the vicinity of the upper level
trough and surface front. Will obviously have to watch this
closely, as we will have melting snow from warmer temperatures as
well as rainfall. This could lead to some water issues with time.
The long range models are in very good agreement concerning the
timing and amount of potential rainfall. The precipitation should
be out of the Northland on Tuesday. Another shortwave traveling
along the International Border will bring a chance of rain/snow to
the northern quarter of MN from Tuesday into Wednesday. The
weather will then become fairly quiet, as high pressure settles
into the region for the rest of the work week. The most
interesting feature of the long term forecast is the potential for
a major storm system that could arrive as early as next Friday.
This is obviously an entire week away, but we will be watching it
closely. Highs from Sunday into Wednesday will range from the 40s
to lower 50s, but cool back into the 30s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions to continue into tonight as high pressure drifts
farther east and a modified Pacific cool front moves through
northern Minnesota. An area of low pressure will move through
northern Manitoba and into far northern Ontario tonight. Moisture
remains quite limited and there may be an increase in VFR cloud
cover overnight. Airmass over the region is much drier than
forecast models suggest. With the lack of stratus last night and
early this morning, am not convinced the BUFR soundings from the
GFS and NAM actually reflect the amount of moisture available for
tonight. Kept a mention of FEW and SCT around 1kft overnight and
Saturday morning. Introduced some BR at HYR and maintained the 6SM
BR at BRD. There`s certainly a potential for lower-half MVFR or
IFR CIGS overnight, but think the odds of stratus developing is
quite low. Models seem to think there is a more snow to our south,
which would be melting today and increasing low-level moisture.
Behind the cool front winds will veer westerly and wind speeds
aloft will increase sharply. Added LLWS at all sites overnight
through much of Saturday morning. Confidence in this forecast
package is above average.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record Highs for February 17...

Duluth................ 52 in 1981
International Falls... 52 in 1907

Record Warmest Lows for February 18...

Duluth................ 35 in 1981
International Falls... 35 in 1981

Record Highs for February 18...

Duluth................ 53 in 1981
International Falls... 49 in 1954

Record Warmest Lows for February 19...

Duluth................ 35 in 1930
International Falls... 32 in 2016

Record Highs for February 19...

Duluth................ 51 in 1930
International Falls... 47 in 1994

Record Warmest Lows for February 20...

Duluth................ 33 in 1954
International Falls... 32 in 1915

Record Highs for February 20...

Duluth................ 54 in 1877
International Falls... 48 in 1990

Record Warmest Lows for February 21...

Duluth................ 33 in 1878
International Falls... 29 in 1981

Record Highs for February 21...

Duluth................ 57 in 1877
International Falls... 50 in 2000

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  32  46  29 /   0  10  10   0
INL  49  31  42  25 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  52  31  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  50  31  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  49  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Huyck
CLIMATE...WM/Huyck



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