Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 281719
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PTYPE TIMING LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR READINGS AROUND
ZERO IN THE ARROWHEAD. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S. ONCE CONCERN IS THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE REGION WHERE READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE STILL REASONABLY CLOSE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL STAY WITH A BLENDED APPROACH AS STATED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR PTYPE AND TIMING. THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO
ADD A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT (2-4C). HOWEVER...THE
COLUMN IS DRY AT FIRST BUT SATURATES OVERNIGHT. AT 06Z...THERE IS
SOME MOISTURE ALOFT AND USING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD...THERE COULD BE
POSSIBLE IP- BUT AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES BY 08-09Z...THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ZR- FOR 3-5 HOURS. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
NEAR OR AT FREEZING OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z...IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
AT MOST AREA EXCEPT IN EASTERN PORTIONS ON NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ALL THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY 18Z SUN AND TAPER OFF
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE THE TIMING/PTYPE
WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE
WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

MONDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SFC RIDGING...AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING VORT MAX THAT WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHERN WI
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP
CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW...FURTHER WEST INTO THE DLH CWA.
PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH THIS
FAST MOVING WAVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS ABOUT
08Z. WITH THE FROPA...LOOK FOR MVFR VSBYS WITH -RA...MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME -FZRA AT HYR AND HAVE A TEMPO FROM 10Z TO 13Z. GUSTY SFC
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA. LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FROM ROUGHLY 02Z TO 10Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  31  46  30 /   0  90  70  10
INL  46  34  45  27 /  10  80  50  10
BRD  42  34  49  30 /  10  70  60  10
HYR  42  31  48  28 /   0  90  90  10
ASX  43  31  48  30 /   0  80  90  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING/STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




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