Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 301402
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
902 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BEEFED UP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2...AS
WELL AS IN NW WI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS ARE POINTING TO THESE AREAS HAVING THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY
TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY TODAY. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRI AFTERNOON

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 8-12 MPH AND HAVE
DECREASED FROM WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT
THE HIGH WINDS YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DECREASING WIND SPEEDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP PUSH COOLER AIR ALOFT THROUGH
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOLAR
HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z AFTER THE HEATING DECREASES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE BORDERLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THOSE
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST ECM/GFS ARE
EVEN SUGGESTING THAT AN AIR MASS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
SKIRTS PAST THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD ZONES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
MIXING...RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND 70S. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW
SWINGS SEVERAL FAST MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
14Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE KINL...KHIB...AND KHYR
VICINITIES MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...KEPT
AS VCSH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  60  78  58 /   0  10   0  10
INL  78  53  76  50 /  60  20  20  10
BRD  83  59  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  80  56  77  53 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  80  59  78  56 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



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