Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300603
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
103 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Last batch of isolated showers was moving through the forecast
area and should exit by 00Z/7pm. Gusty surface winds will be
diminishing by sunset. Made adjustments to account for those
trends and remove the late afternoon wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The Northland finds itself in the wake of a passing area of low
pressure, which will continue lifting through Ontario. While much
of the Northland had gusty west-northwest flow and broken/overcast
cloud cover as of the middle of the afternoon, there should be
more scattering of the cloud cover into early this evening. The
heating will develop scattered light rain showers across the
western and southern forecast area later this afternoon before
dissipating later this evening. There could be some weak storms,
as well, primarily over the far western and far southern forecast
area where there will be the best heating.

The cloud cover will continue to clear tonight as a ridge of
high pressure moves in from the west. Much of the Northland should
be clear by the wee hours of Monday morning. Patchy fog is
possible late tonight due to the light wind and humidity.

Memorial Day is shaping up to be a fairly sunny and warm day.
Light westerly flow will become southerly in the afternoon as low
pressure develops in the Great Plains. There could be some
scattered cumulus across the northern forecast area, and high
clouds may begin to spread into the forecast area in the late
afternoon and early evening. Leaned on the warmer model guidance
given the sunshine and relatively dry humidity, such as the bias-
corrected Canadian regional and SREF models. Also, since the flow
at Park Point should be from the west and south, increased
temperatures near the lake shore of the Twin Ports since the
models have a cool bias for Park Point. Highs should range from
the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Northeast winds will increase over lake Superior Monday night
through Tuesday as an area of low pressure center approaches from
the Dakotas. The gusty onshore flow will keeping temperatures much
cooler near Lake Superior.

The low will spread showers and thunderstorms over northern
Minnesota Monday night/Tuesday as it lifts a warm front into the
region. The precipitation should hold off until Tuesday afternoon
hours for the MN arrowhead zones as the advancing moisture will be
in battle with the dry easterly flow. The stacked low and
associated cold front will gradually sweep across Minnesota and
over Lake Superior during the Wednesday/Wednesday night periods,
triggering showers and thunderstorms with a potential for periods
of heavy rain.

A much cooler air mass with mid level temps near zero Celsius
will pass over the northland Thursday keeping temperatures below
normal and chances for lingering instability showers.

At this time....Friday is on track to be a transition day with
brief surface ridging and dry conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms return to forecast for the upcoming weekend as
latest ECM/GFS are showing good agreement that a clipper drops out
of Canada and settles over the western Great Lakes through early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure will continue building into the region overnight.
This will provide light winds and clear skies at all terminals. As
a result expecting fog development. This will result in a visby
reduction down to the MVFR/IFR/LIFR range. Not overly confident in
fog development at KDLH as winds may remain high enough to keep
radiational fog from forming, but hinted at between 09z to 12z.
Any radiational fog that develops overnight will burn off during
the morning as winds increase, which will return all terminals to
VFR conditions.

Due to daytime heating and a weak warm frontal like boundary in
northern MN, per the 00z GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP. Expecting scattered
showers with some thunderstorms possible at KDLH/KINL/KHIB
starting around 18z. Will see additional showers and storms move
in from the west between 00z and 06z as a low moves into western
MN. Think that KHYR will stay out of this activity until after
06z. Uncertain on how widespread or exact location of
thunderstorm activity, so left in as VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  79  47  50 /   0   0  40  70
INL  49  78  48  60 /  10  10  20  70
BRD  51  80  55  70 /  10  10  80  60
HYR  51  80  50  72 /   0   0  40  80
ASX  52  79  47  61 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...WL



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