000
FXUS63 KDLH 301111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
511 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT INL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SITES DETERIORATING
TO IFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM