Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240938
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY MILD INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WITH SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TODAY AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TOMORROW.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH PROVIDED THE LIFT/MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR YESTERDAYS PRECIP MOVES NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING AS SLIGHTLY COLDER /BUT STILL WARMER
THAN NORMAL/ AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO
LONG AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LIFT...ENOUGH TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW DEEP THE
MOISTURE IS AND WHERE THE LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE VERTICAL COLUMN.
THE HIRES ARW/NMM AS WELL AS THE RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF GENERATION COMPARED TO THE COARSER GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AND AM THINKING THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO HOW QUICKLY
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. SINCE THE
STRATUS TENDS TO HOLD ON STRONG ONCE IT DEVELOPS DECIDED TO LEAN
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE HIRES/NAM GUIDANCE AND INCLUDED SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT BEGINNING IN THE RAIN BEGINNING IN THE
BORDERLAND AND GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT COULD SEE A
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TOWARDS CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS THE IRON RANGE
SOUTH TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. OVER THE COURSE OF CHRISTMAS DAY
THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL EXPAND AND CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...RANGING FROM
THE TWIN PORTS WEST TO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

TODAY...EARLY THIS MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL /AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ WAS FALLING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUTH TO THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AND POINTS WEST. THERE WERE WERE ALSO A FEW WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-DAY AND MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING DUE TO A LONG FETCH ALONG THE LAKE AND
DESPITE THE WEAK LAKE WATER TEMP/AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE. THE
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA HOWEVER WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS
DAWN...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG PERSISTING INTO
THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN
NORTHERN MINNEOSTA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH TEMPS
REMAINING STEADY OF RISING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES
TAPERING OFF. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
GRAND RAPIDS AND WEST...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVERCAST. LOWS IN THE MID 20S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO OUR AVERAGE HIGH
OF 20 THAN THE AVERAGE LOW OF 5.

CHRISTMAS DAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN PORTS SOUTH
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH...AND AT THIS POINT THE
BEST TIMING LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LOW SNOW RATIOS...AND NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS SHOULD KEEP MAIN ROADS FROM BEING HEAVILY
IMPACTED FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST SEE A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF WET SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT FINDS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS MN ACCOMPANIED
BY A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY FROM SW MN TO NW WI. MODELS OFFER
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE TROF. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER NW WI. THE NAM AND SOME MEMBERS OF THE
SREF SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT THE MAJORITY DO NOT PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS IT CAN BE ADDED LATER
IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROF FOLLOWS
ON FRIDAY ALMOST OVER THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS TROF. OMEGA
FIELD IS WEAKER AND AREA OF VORTICITY HAS WEAKENED AS WELL. WILL
HOWEVER HAVE SOME POPS...BUT A BIT LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND LIFTING IT NE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI.
ECMWF/GEM ARE WEAKER AND HAVE LESS QPF. REGARDLESS...ANOTHER TROF
MOVES OVER THE FA. BUT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HAVE
POPS OVER NW WI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. ON
SATURDAY...SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FA. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
MORNING OVER IRON COUNTY AND A PART OF ASHLAND COUNTY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROF DEPARTS. WITH THE SFC RIDGE NEARBY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HAVE A DRY FORECAST. SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE HANDLING OF UPPER TROFS AFFECTING THE AREA AND USED A BLENDED
APPROACH TO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MAINLY IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING TO JUST BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS TONIGHT SO SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WE EXPECT IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  24  33  24 /  10  10  30  30
INL  31  24  31  20 /  20  20  20  10
BRD  32  24  33  23 /  10  10  30  30
HYR  33  25  34  26 /  30  10  30  30
ASX  33  27  35  28 /  30  10  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE





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