Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 262027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MID LVL PATTERN FEATURES TWO BRANCHES OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS CONUS
WITH THE NRN BRANCH MAINTAINING A VERY PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER. WV
LOOP SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF LOCATED OVER NWRN NODAK.
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES HAS AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A
BACKING FLOW SUPPLYING INCREASING MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
CTRL PLAINS.  THIS IS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY WITH CLOUDS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL CUMULUS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE BACK EDGE OF A SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC FLOW LEFT IN WAKE
OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM. GUSTY WEST/NW WIND STILL IN PLAY OVER ARROWHEAD
AND TWIN PORTS. 88D RETURNS OVER NRN PLAINS SHOW AN EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIP ON THE RETURN FLOW SIDE OF A SFC HIGH. THIS
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING WITHIN CONFLUENCE OF THE TWO UPPER JET BRANCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS CWA OVERNIGHT WITH
AREA OF MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTING INCREASING CLOUDS/LIGHT
PRECIP. SFC HIGH IS FCST TO SWING EAST IN TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORCING/SATURATION APPEARS ON THE WEAK/LOW SIDE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...HARD TO IGNORE INCREASING ECHOES OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. ALL MDL OUTPUT NOW INDICATING LIGHT QPF ACROSS SRN
HALF/THIRD OF CWA. INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF PREVIOUS POPS
HOWEVER STILL MAINLY A SLIGHT CHC EVENT.

TOMORROW...AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL TROF WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST WITH
SFC HIGH THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECTED WITH
INCREASED LOW LVL THICKNESSES/925 TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD LIFT ABOUT
3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS VALUES.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT  316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WARM WARM WHERE WE SEE THE 8H TEMPS
RISING INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AS THE  UPPER TROF DIGS AND DEEPENS INTO THE SW
STATES. WHILE THIS SW UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL SPIN UP THROUGH THE TROUGH AND INTO SRN
MN.  WE`LL SEE SUCH A SYSTEM THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MN AND WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATES THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG FGEN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN MN AND CENTRAL
WI...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA FROM PINE CITY ACROSS EAST TO PHILLIPS
WI AND SOUTH IN THE BEST LIFT AREA. HOWEVER...WE`RE NOT SEEING A LOT
OF INSTABILITY AND STABLE LAPSE RATES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE WET AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREAS AND FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER SOME CIGS AT KHIB AND KINL WILL BE HOVERING AROUND THE 3K
HEIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  70  53  68 /  20   0   0  20
INL  40  71  47  74 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  52  73  55  73 /  20  10  10  30
HYR  49  72  51  70 /  20  10   0  40
ASX  51  71  51  71 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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