000
FXUS63 KDLH 101515
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED.
ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS SET UP ALONG BAYFIELD COUNTY FROM
PORT WING TO THE TIP OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. ONLY EXPECTING
FLURRIES WITH THIS BAND...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

FIRST CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS THE ENDING TIME OF THE LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING. SECOND CONCERN IS WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS IN NE
MN GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MN.
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MODELS...THE SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE LEECH
LAKE AND LAKE WINNIE AREAS AROUND 12Z AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE CLIPPER.

SECOND CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THE
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE
CLIPPER DEPARTS...IT WILL PULL IN ANOTHER SHOW OF VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE -15 TO -25
RANGE AND A 2-3 DEGREES COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE READINGS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THEY WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO WARNING
CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING BEGINNING 06Z WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. WILL STATE THE DIFFERENT
VALUES IN THE WSW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.LONG TERM...

TRAILING EDGE OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IMPACTING THE
NORTHLAND WED NIGHT WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES PERSISTING INTO THUR MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SFC AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR
AND DROP TEMPERATURES TO 15 TO 20 BELOW...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE
ARROWHEAD AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR POSSIBLY DROPPING TO NEAR 30
BELOW. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 TO -45 ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.

VERY WEAK WAA ON THUR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...AND ALSO INTERACT WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MN DURING THE DAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 210.

AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TEAM UP WITH AN UPPER S/W DROPPING
SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EWD. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM +5 TO -12 DEG F.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS SET TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH SAT NIGHT AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS WITH DAY TIME
HIGHS AROUND +5 THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW...AND GENERALLY LOW-END VFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. WILL SEE THE SNOW COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS
LOWER A BIT AND -SN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   2 -20  -4 -15 /  30  10   0  20
INL  -3 -23  -5 -25 /  10  10   0   0
BRD   3 -20  -2 -15 /  10  10   0  20
HYR   5 -18  -1 -18 /  70  10   0  30
ASX   5 -10   1 -11 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT