000
FXUS63 KDLH 131150 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

MID CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS STRONG WAA
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF 4 AM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA
RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN PORTIONS OF NW WI TO
THE LOWER 20S WEST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OFF AND ON AROUND
THE GRAND MARAIS AREA...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DUE TO SW AND A
NARROW STRIPE OF OPEN WATER ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE.

IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS WAA INDUCED
CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE LARGELY IN THE 40S. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN SPOTS DUE TO THE STRONG WAA. THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE A QUICK COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH AND
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

DEEP CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHLAND AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A SMALL CHC OF SNOW OVER THE ERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ALLOW A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE EARLY BEFORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP
LAYER DRYING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION SAT/SUNDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. PATTERN CHANGES
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SPREADS WARM ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS
THEN DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS WHICH YIELDS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST. EC
DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SWINGS IT EAST INTO CTRL
WISC TUES/WED WHILE INTENSIFYING.GFS IS NOT AT ALL IN AGREEMENT AND
MAINTAINS A LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
LOW MS VALLEY. GEM HAS A WEAK SFC LOW SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. NAEFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER
TO THE EC MAY EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SFC
LOW MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE ERROR AS THE SLP SPREAD IS AT LEAST
10MB. AT THIS TIME UNFORTUNATELY THE RESULT IS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
LOW POPS INTO MIDWEEK UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY BECOMES APPARENT. TEMPS
WILL LOWER TO BELOW CLIMO   FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE MODERATING CLOSER
TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT  645 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

LARGE AREA OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL BDRY
IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CWA. BASED ON LATEST FCST LOW LVL COND
PRESS DEFICITS EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
PCP CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW AT SRN TERMINALS SO LATER UPDATES MAY
NEED TO AMEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  28  40  11 /  10  20  30  20
INL  43  25  32   2 /  10  50  50  20
BRD  47  29  39  11 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  43  30  42  12 /  10  20  40  20
ASX  45  30  42  14 /  20  20  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON