612
FXUS63 KDLH 100848
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms in northwest Minnesota likely to impact at least part
  of the international border and Iron Range this morning.
  Another chance for thunderstorms later this afternoon into
  overnight.

- Chances for storms continue into Friday. Friday afternoon and
  evening are the best chances for strong to severe storms
  across the area as well as localized flooding.

- Precipitation chances continue into the late weekend and early
  next week. Timing and placement of these chances are
  uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A line of storms is moving to the east will affect the
Borderlands and Iron Range this morning. These storms are weak
due to the lack of wind shear in the environment. However, some
areas under the line has seen over three quarters of an inch of
rain, and that trend will continue under the highest
reflectivities. More scattered convection further south
accompanying the line will be up and down throughout the
morning. It is uncertain how far east these storms will go, as
the CAMs are having difficulty accurately representing the
convection.

Initiation timing for storms this afternoon and evening will
depend on if/when the cap aloft erodes from diurnal heating.
Instability is plentiful throughout this afternoon and evening,
though wind shear is modest, at 15-25 kts across the CWA. Storm
mode will when likely be stationary up- and-down cells, with
main hazards being hail and damaging winds. However, model
soundings are hinting at a limited threat for hail from high
moisture and the height of the hail growth zone. PWATs 1.5-2"
across the area will lead to slight chances for localized
flooding, especially if storms train over the same area.

A cold front will move through the Northland starting Friday
morning and will move southeast throughout the day. Otherwise
the environment will largely remain the same with plenty of
instability and weak shear. However, as the cold front moves
through, there is a narrow window where shear increases just
behind the front, which may be the extra boost needed to create
a few severe storms. Main hazards will again be hail. PWATs
will remain high, the threat for localized flooding continuing.
These storms are expected to last into Saturday, mainly across
northwest Wisconsin.

A weak ridge will settle in for Sunday, leading to warm
conditions once again for Sunday and Monday. The GFS shows
another chance for showers and storms as early as Monday due to
an upper level trough in western Ontario, while the ECMWF keeps
us dry still under the ridge until early Tuesday morning. Either
way, showers and storms will return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A line of thunderstorms are approaching the Northland, though
the longevity of these storms are in question, since the high
resolution models are not following this line well. There is
increasing probabilities that the northern portion of the line
will reach INL and HIB, as this line seems to be sustaining
itself for the time being. Chances for storms continue
throughout the day, though probabilities for any one hour is low
due to uncertainty, so tried to encapsulate most likely time
frames within the PROB30 groups.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Northeast winds continue across Lake Superior, and highest winds
of up to 15 kts will be at the head of the lake. Waves today
will once again be in 1-2 ft range. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible today with stormy conditions starting early as mid
morning but more likely in the afternoon. Storm chances continue
through Saturday, with strong to isolated severe storms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Main hazards will be cloud to
water lightning and hail.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML