Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 151005
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
405 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Snow lingers near Lake Superior and especially along the south shore
through tonight, then an area of high pressure builds in leading to
mainly sunny skies on Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal with
highs ranging from near zero to the teens above zero and lows from
nearly 20 below zero to the single digits above zero, coldest in
north-central Minnesota.

On the synoptic scale the clipper that brought Sunday`s snow will
linger across the Midwest today. The mid-level closed low centered
near the Twin Cities this morning will gradually lift east-
southeastward towards Lake Michigan tonight, amplifying back to more
of a shortwave trough as it exits to the east due a longwave ridge
over the Rockies building eastward. At low levels winds will shift
to become northeast to east-northeasterly through the day into
tonight which will cause lake effect snow bands to develop along the
western Lake Superior shoreline. While the highest snow totals will
dependent on where the best low level convergence ultimately
develops, there is a high likelihood for periods of moderate to
heavy snow along the south shore late today into tonight. There is
also a level of uncertainty for the Twin Ports as this kind of low
level flow has the potential to produce a brief duration lake effect
snow band over the Twin Ports during the evening commute. In
addition to the lake effect snow, increasing north winds could cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow today across northeast and east-
central Minnesota with winds gusting to around 25 mph. The increased
winds will also cause wind chill values remaining in the 15 to 30
below zero in north-central Minnesota, so the Wind Chill Advisory in
effect was extended through tonight.

Additional snowfall along the south shore will range from 3 to 6
inches, which lesser amounts farther south. While only another inch
or two is expected south of the south shore counties in northwest
Wisconsin, the Winter Weather Advisory for Washburn, Sawyer, and
Price counties was extended through today because some lake effect
bands could extended into these counties which would cause
occasionally lower visibilities.

On Tuesday a mid-level ridge axis builds in with drier air moving in
aloft. At least some sunshine is possible, though model soundings
depict an area of stratus remaining in place for parts of the
Northland. Temperatures slightly warmer in the single digits to
teens above zero, but still around ten degrees below normal.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

High pressure builds for Wednesday with warm air advection bringing
in much warmer air where highs get back into the 20s to even the 30s
by late in the week. Generally most of the week should be dry, but
there are some wrinkles.

A well-modeled short-wave passes over Thursday which should be
enough to bring some form of precip to the region, but probably not
measurable.  Another short-wave passes on Friday with slightly
better odds for QPF.

The big story in the extended continues to be the potential for a
major winter storm for Sunday into Monday. Both the deterministic
GFS and ECMWF models are remarkably in sync. Add to that the
ensembles for the euro are also in agreement with their deterministic
counterparts. Now, the GFS ensembles move the system a little
further to the south and east for less impacts to the area. Despite
that, it`s fairly rare to have this much agreement in models on a
system this far out. Even the mass fields are in good agreement.
This is not to say that things will happen per this solution set,
but the signature of a storm has been there for quite a few days.
Long story short, keep an eye on the forecast going into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

An area of MVFR/IFR conditions in -SN is slowly moving southeast
out of the area with a clipper system moving through the area as
of issuance time, leaving mostly VFR conditions behind. Expect
some lingering MVFR snow flurries/light snow into Monday with
cold northwest flow continuing. Have poor confidence in guidance
this morning as most of it keeps conditions MVFR or even IFR as of
issuance time and most of the TAF period, but there is a large
area of conditions of VFR with scattered MVFR snow showers, and
have trended forecast more in this direction than the more
pessimistic guidance. Expect some Lake Effect snow showers to
develop between 09z and 15z, which may affect either KDLH and
KHYR for several hours after 15z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  -4   8  -4 /  70  30   0   0
INL   6 -21   5  -6 /  20   0   0   0
BRD   2 -13   5  -8 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  16   3  15  -8 /  80  60  10   0
ASX  20   8  16  -1 /  80  90  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     WIZ007>009.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ002>004.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...LE



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