Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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