Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190543 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

concern for short term is marginal chance for severe storms.

Current surface analysis indicates an area of mid clouds moving
across NE MN. Radar does show some returns with this area. There
were a few rain showers back in NW MN this morning with the clouds
but nothing has reached the ground in NC or NE MN this afternoon.
The main concern will be showers and thunderstorms that will
develop early this evening and spread east through the area. SPC
has most of the the area in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. Surface dewpoints are in the middle to upper 50s
along with increase MUCape across the area. As the front moves
across the region, some of the storms will be strong to possibly
severe between 00z-04z with large hail and damaging winds the main
threat. All of the precipitation should be out of the area by 06z.

High pressure builds into the region late tonight and Monday.
Skies will become sunny but winds will be gusty out of the est at
15 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Concern for long term is heavy rain potential Wednesday through
Friday across the forecast area.

The area of high pressure will dominate the weather MOnday night
and Tuesday. A surface trough will move across the northern
plains tuesday and drop southeast into southern MN by Wednesday.
The forecast region will remain south of the warm front lying
across central MN and WI. The upper low associated with this
system deepens and becomes nearly stationary by Wednesday
afternoon with an easterly wind across the region. This setup will
lead to periods of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.
There may be a break in the precipitation on Thursday as drier
temporally moves into the region. Models are varied in the amount
of the precipitation with GFS having 1-2 inches over the region
and ECMWF has 2-3 inches. WPC has 2-4 inches over the forecast
area through Sunday. It may be too earlier to get an exact
forecast amount but all indications is this will be a heavy rain
event at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period...except in the
khyr area where dense fog will linger for a few hours early this
morning. Winds will become gusty out of the west to northwest
today with widespread gusts around 30 knots after 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  70  51  65 /   0   0  10  60
INL  48  67  45  63 /  10   0  10  30
BRD  49  71  52  67 /   0  10  20  80
HYR  49  73  49  69 /   0   0  20  60
ASX  52  73  51  68 /  10   0  10  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     tonight for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...CLC



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