Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 120550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1150 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Clouds fairly solid across the northern portions of the CWA and
should quickly fill in overnight extending to the southern
portions of our CWA.

High pressure builds on Sunday though lingering low level moisture
should keep clouds around most of the day though there will likely
be peeks of sunshine here and there. Due to cloud cover,
temperatures will not rise quite as high tomorrow. Otherwise,
fairly quiet weather through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

The main concerns for the long term include and above normal
temperatures on Tuesday, the precipitation chances and type
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and again Thursday through
Saturday morning.

Fairly quiet conditions to start the long term with quasi-zonal
flow forecast. Winds near the surface will turn southerly by
Tuesday. Isentropic upglide from eastern Nebraska into northern
Minnesota will increase low-level moisture and cloud cover. Look
for mainly cloudy skies Monday night through Tuesday night. An
upper level jet streak will move across the Rockies and into the
Northern Plains Tuesday afternoon with a shortwave trough
developing in response. Lee cyclogenesis is anticipated in
southern Alberta late Monday night and will move across the
Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. A cool front will advance into the
region Tuesday night bringing a chance of precipitation. The warm
air advection near the surface will result in a mixed precip
event with rain starting in the afternoon changing to light snow
as the system departs in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. For
temperatures on Tuesday, leaned on the bias-corrected GEM and
unadjusted ECMWF. That mix raised afternoon highs several degrees
above the consensus values. Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday ahead of a trough digging into
the western United States on Thursday. While each of the medium-
range models features the trough and associated jet streaks,
there are differences in handling the details. The GFS solution
is much stronger with phasing between the approaching jet streak
and the departing wave over New England. The GEM and ECMWF have
more separation between these features and less phasing. All of
the guidance brings a chance precipitation to the Northland
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. The GFS solution would bring
much more precipitation than the ECMWF or GEM. Since the GFS
solution doesn`t seem any less plausible than the ECMWF/GEM
consensus, opted to go with the consensus blend for Thursday
afternoon through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

MVFR Stratus remains over most of the area as of issuance time.
This stratus is expected to continue to slowly expand in coverage
overnight, and should affect all but KHYR by 08z, with some
lowering of ceilings, but staying MVFR. This stratus is expected
to stay out of KHYR overnight, but fog is expected to develop,
which should aid in development in stratus as well. Have
visibilities dropping to LIFR, and some LIFR stratus should also
form. The MVFR stratus is not expected to move into KHYR until
14z or later. The MVFR stratus should linger through much of the
remainder of the TAF period, with some improvement after 23z.


DLH  22  30  19  33 /   0   0   0   0
INL  18  27  14  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  21  31  20  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  20  33  18  36 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  25  34  22  37 /  10  10   0   0




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