Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 071128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 07Z RESULTED IN A NORTHERLY SFC
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS
MOVING OVERHEAD AND GENERATING SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER AND THE WIND HAS KEPT FOG FROM
FORMING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TROF
DEPARTS...EXPECT THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE LEAVING A
SUNNY SKY. COOL H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NEAR
10C...WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER GREEN BAY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PUTS THE AREA
IN A SW FLOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TIME. WILL START WITH A CLEAR
SKY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE RETURNS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH INFLUENCING THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA...THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS WILL BE
LOCATED HERE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WAA BRINGS MORE MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER THE REGION. A
SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY
ASSISTED BY AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. HAVE
SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS AREA IN RESPONSE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE TROF AND KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
FOR THE WEEKEND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES HOLD WITH BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE.
WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOME SCENARIOS...BUT PRECISE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT DUE TO A COMPLEX
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A BRIEF ZONAL PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CAUSE
FOR THIS WILL BE A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND AN UPPER RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST DRIFTING WESTWARD. BY THE
WEEKEND THIS RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PUT
OUR REGION NEAR THE PATH FOR A NUMBER OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE. GFS PLACES THIS STORM TRACK A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN ECMWF/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN...WHICH RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS
AND AN OVERALL BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY STEADY WITH ITS SOLUTIONS...ITS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT WITH
THE REST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS
LEAD TO SUSPICION ABOUT ITS TAKE ON THE PATTERN.

WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WARMING TREND AND GENERALLY DRY. ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK EAST-WEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY. SUNNY THURSDAY AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE
FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE LEANED TOWARDS A NON-GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPS WARMER INTO THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE GFS DOES
REMAIN THE WARMEST SOLUTION...IT SEEMS TO BE TRENDING LOWER AND
CLOSER TO OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE STORMS IS
WANING BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY...FOCUSING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF 4-6KFT CEILING
CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WINDS
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...NORTHERLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
NEAR- CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  52  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
INL  71  46  73  54 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  71  50  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  70  47  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  69  48  74  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM


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