Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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900
FXUS63 KDLH 232127
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
327 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The main concern during the short term period involves the
potential for light snow across northern and northeast Minnesota
into northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday.

High pressure in the wake of yesterday`s winter storm has kept
most of Minnesota sunny to partly cloudy today. Northerly flow
over western Lake Superior has supported stratus and snow showers
downwind from the lake over northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile a
shortwave trough and associated vort max was observed along the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border near The Pas. A nearly stationary
front extended south from the trough through the Red River Valley.

As the shortwave trough pushes southeastward overnight, the
frontal boundary will advance eastward as a warm front moving
into the Northland Wednesday morning. Isentropic ascent over the
frontal surface has supported an area of stratus over the Red
River Valley this afternoon and is expected to move eastward into
the western CWA late this afternoon and early this evening. Winds
in the boundary layer will back northwesterly and eventually
westerly over northwest Wisconsin tonight pushing the cloud deck
east of northwest Wisconsin for a time. The clearing will be brief
as the stratus from the west will arrive before sunrise. Cold air
will continue pouring onto Lake Superior from the north and east
overnight with long residence times expected. Sensible heat and
moisture flux will deepen the mixed layer over the lake through
the night. Winds off the north shore will back southerly as the
surface ridge axis passes off to the east. The light southerly
return flow may be strong enough to advect the lake modified
parcels inland along the north shore Wednesday morning ahead of
the approaching shortwave. A several hour period of lake effect
snow is possible from Two Harbors to Grand Portage during the
morning hours. By afternoon, falling heights and an approaching
elevated cool front should provide additional lift for widespread
light snow showers over much of northeast Minnesota. Seeder/feeder
processes along the north shore should help boost snowfall
amounts. However, with limited moisture across the board, the
highest snow totals will likely be around 2 inches.

Temperatures will be relatively warm tonight and again on
Wednesday with readings remaining above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The extended period will remain quiet with mild temperatures
impacting the region into the weekend before cooling down once more.
No strong storm systems are expected in the long term period.

The initial period continues on the light snow showers across the
Arrowhead and portions of the north shore of Lake Superior as drier
conditions take hold due to the arrival of the upper level ridge.
This ridge will extend from Four Corners region northward through
Montana and into Saskatchewan and Alberta Wednesday night before
passing through the Northland Thursday evening. This ridge will be
accompanied with strong warm air advection that will have max
temperatures on Thursday reaching into the upper 20s and low 30s
while Friday temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s and
low 40s across northwestern Wisconsin. Models differ on the max
temperature for Friday with the spread going warmer into the upper
30s and lower 40s on Friday but with recent snowfall cover across
northwestern Wisconsin, think the models are going too warm on
temperatures and extending how far the warm air advection extends
northward. Dry conditions will persist Thursday through Friday
morning as an area of low pressure will move in behind the warm air
advection with light wintry mixed precipitation chances across the
International Border region. Winds will turn from the northwest with
the passing of the low Saturday night giving the rise to increased
light snow potential across the south shore of Lake Superior,
particularly Ashland and Iron County. Light lake-effect snow showers
will be possible through the remainder of the weekend into portions
of Monday afternoon. Highs Saturday will dip back into the mid to
upper 20s with low 30s across portions of northwest Wisconsin and
Sunday into the upper teens along the Range and low 20s across
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The influence of a low pressure centered over the eastern Great
Lakes continues to have an impact across our region in particular
KHYR as snow has begun to diminish and skies will gradually
improve. A section of clearing with light clouds will impact the
remainder of the afternoon period with skies cleared at KHIB and
KINL while the remaining sites remain with a few clouds but skies
will generally remain VFR before IFR/MVFR conditions redevelop
tonight. As a ridge of high pressure moves into the area, winds
will become light and variable into the overnight period. There is
a chance for additional cloud cover across the north shore of
Lake Superior impacting conditions at KDLH during the overnight as
low level winds veer to southeast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  24  15  30 /  10  10  10   0
INL   7  23  11  30 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  14  27  15  34 /  10   0   0   0
HYR   6  25  11  33 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   8  25  13  32 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...LE/WM
AVIATION...WM



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