Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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072
FXUS63 KDLH 062119 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010- 018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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