417
FXUS63 KDLH 071801
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
101 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are expected late this afternoon and
  evening. Some isolated severe storms are possible.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms continue throughout
  the week, with chances for severe weather increasing over the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A shortwave trough will move east across the Northern Plains
today, and a cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms
across the Northland. An abundance of 30-40 kt shear and
1000-2000 J/kg will create a good environment for severe storms,
especially in north central Minnesota. Main threats will be
damaging winds and large hail, however a moist vertical profile
across model soundings will limit hail growth in storms.
Downdraft CAPE is modest, so damaging winds will be isolated as
well where it is able to be mixed down to the surface.
Precipitable water values up to 1.5 inches bring a marginal
threat for localized flooding. However, the speed of the storms
will limit that threat as well, unless there is training over
one area.

After the cold front passes, lingering synoptic forcing and
diurnal heating will lead to showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon. A cap that will remain in the mid levels will prevent
any severe weather, but general thunderstorms will be expected.

A ridge will move over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and a
pleasant, high pressure day with increasing temperatures. Flow
will switch to increasing the southwest, and dewpoints in the
60s and temperatures in the mid 80s will increase throughout
Thursday. A cold front ahead of a large upper level trough in
the west. The potential for severe weather increases Friday
afternoon with MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, but like today,
an abundance of moisture throughout the vertical column (around
2" PW) and low wind shear will limit severe potential. Seems
like it could be an "up and down" storms day, where the storm is
strongest shortly after initiation. Efficient rainfall rates
expected from high PWs and slow storm motion may result in
localized flooding. The low pressure to the north will slow as
its motion shifts from east to northeast, and chances for
showers and general thunderstorms will linger through the
weekend from wrap around northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon before a line of
showers and thunderstorms moves through late this afternoon and
evening. This will bring mainly MVFR or lower visibilities as it
passes. The signal for additional showers and storms has
decreased for the overnight, but the signal for fog has
increased with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities possible.
Improvement should occur after sunrise with visibilities
improving before ceilings.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Winds out of the northeast will continue, with the strongest
throughout the afternoon hours. Even so, the strongest wind
gusts for the next few days will be up to 15 kts as the
environment over Lake Superior remains stable. Showers and
storms are expected today, with some becoming strong to severe
and producing cloud-to-water lightning, small hail, and wind
gusts up to 30 kts. General thunderstorms will continue into
Tuesday before a short high pressure builds in Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...KML