Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MOST OF THE FOG HAS DIMINISHED AND WHERE IT LINGERS...SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IA AT 07Z. PIECES OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH THE FA.
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS OCCURRING AND SENDING SOME SCT TO BKN
MID CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN FA. SOME PATCHY BR WAS FORMING
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS ALIGNED FROM SE TO NW FROM PRICE
COUNTY WI TO KOOCHICHING COUNTY MN. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MEANDERS
INTO SW MN BY 00Z SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH
ENERGY TO WRING OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PINE COUNTY MN BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. ONLY THE ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME QPF...THE OTHER MODELS
LEAVE IT OUT INCLUDING THE LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS. THE
CONSENSUS POINTS TO REMOVING THE RAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CORNER OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CUT OFF LOW OPENS UP INTO A LONG WAVE TROF
AS IT DRIFTS AROUND SW MN/NW IA. SFC RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE FA
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY DROP SWD AND
BISECTS THE FA FROM SW TO NE BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH THIS FRONT IS A BIT
DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID LEVEL TROF. BY MID
AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ARRIVES AS AN H25 JET MOVES
THROUGH CANADA JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE INGREDIENTS
INDICATE THAT A CONTINUED MENTION OF POPS/RAIN IS WARRANTED.
VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THESE FEATURES AND HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. MAX TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IN STORE FOR THIS WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS LAST WEEK
BREAKS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY GETS REPLACED BY A COLD UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK. AN INITIAL UPPER S/W AND SFC COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE EWD THROUGH THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHLAND MON AND TUE...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A POST FRONTAL SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALLOW A STRONG E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE TO
DEVELOP. WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AND KEEP MUCH OF THE
REGION RATHER COOL WITH PATCHY FOG AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LS. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS A WARM AIR MASS TO FILL IN FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE SFC WINDS COULD TAKE UNTIL WED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SW AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER S/W AND SFC LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK N/NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN ISO STORMS. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST BY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS SET TO DESCEND UPON THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TOUCH OF LATE FALL SHOULD BE FELT BY
SAT/SUN.

TEMPERATURES MON/TUE WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AROUND LS AND IN THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL DROP INTO THE 40S IN CLEARING
POCKETS...AND INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 50S. HOWEVER THE
REAL SHIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT THUR NIGHT AND FRI WHERE LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED FOG COULD DROP VSBYS/CIGS INTO
THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS TO KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  76  49 /   0   0  10  60
INL  81  56  66  43 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  80  57  76  51 /   0   0  10  30
HYR  77  54  77  49 /  10  10  10  20
ASX  80  54  76  46 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DAP





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