Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121044
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
444 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 432 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

A fast moving shortwave will move from Manitoba into northwest
Ontario today, bringing chances for snow there that may overlap
into the borderlands of northern Minnesota, mainly during the
morning and early afternoon. Have kept to flurries and a sliver of
slight chance pops as low level dry air will keep much
precipitation from falling in our area. This shortwave will also
drag a cold front across the area, bringing a fresh shot of cold,
cold air into the area. This is going to keep highs mostly in the
single digits today. Tonight, temperatures are going to plummet
after dark. Clearing skies and winds gradually dropping off as the
surface ridge settles in overhead are going to allow for good
radiational cooling conditions overnight. Most guidance has
minimum temperatures in the -15 to -25 range, with MOS in the -15
to -30 range. Given the fresh snow cover and personal experience,
have gone a few degrees colder than that yet, especially in our
cold spots across far northern Minnesota. It seems like a slam
dunk for a wind chill advisory/warning combo for tonight depending
on location. Have held off for now as we have an advisory out
already this morning. Despite the very cold morning, expect highs
to get back up around zero once again Friday. With the ridge
overhead Friday should be relatively quiet with mostly sunny
conditions. There is some potential for LES over the south shore
late tonight/early Friday as winds turn northwesterly. However,
while the wind trajectory is good and temperatures are cold enough
aloft, it appears that there will be too much dry air to let the
convective bands get going with the shorter fetch distances on the
western end of the lake, and may instead form farther east. Clouds
are certainly possible though, and have some increased cloud cover
and slightly warmer min temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 432 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Look for several days of quieter weather followed by a chance of
wintry mixed precipitation early next week.

A quieter weather pattern will continue through Sunday night as the
upper level flow gradually shifts from northwesterly to quasi-zonal
and eventually southwesterly by early next week. A subtle shortwave
trough will move through the area Friday night and early Saturday
morning, which may bring a few snow showers to northwest Wisconsin.
Without much moisture to work with, we expect only a few tenths of
an inch of snow accumulation. Temperatures will gradually trend
warmer through the weekend and into next week.

Attention then shifts to a deepening longwave trough over the
western United States which is expected to move from near Baja
California into the Central Plains by Monday night. Deterministic
and ensemble members are in slightly better agreement this morning
bringing the upper low into the Upper Midwest late Monday night or
Tuesday. There is a chance of a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain,
or sleet over portions of northwest Wisconsin Monday night and
Tuesday, with snow possible farther east and north. Confidence is
not especially high this morning, but anyone with travel plans early
next week is encouraged to keep up with the forecast through the
weekend.

The upper trough will linger over the Plains and Midwest through the
end of the week with pockets of DCVA and weak shortwaves rippling
through the flow. It`s likely we`ll see another few rounds of light
snow after Tuesday, but the wide variety of model solutions doesn`t
allow for much confidence this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR at the start of the forecast with high pressure in the
vicinity. Mid and high clouds were found near DLH/BRD/HYR. An
area of low pressure was moving into southern Manitoba with a slug
of VFR clouds. As the low moves eastward through Thursday, it will
drag a cold front past the terminals. Some light snow will be in
the vicinity of INL from 09Z to 16Z when the cold front passes
with mainly VFR. Some MVFR cielings are possible, but confidence
is low and have left out. After fropa at each terminal, gusty
surface winds are expected and will last until 00Z or shortly
thereafter. High pressure builds into the area with VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -21   2  -5 /   0   0   0  20
INL   1 -29   1  -5 /  20   0   0  10
BRD   6 -26   4  -4 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  10 -24   7  -3 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  10 -15   7   0 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CST Friday
     for LSZ121-144-145-148.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this evening
     for LSZ140>143-146-147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...GSF



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