Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291535
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
935 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Reports have been received from Pine county of a rain/snow mix.
This coincides with the increase in radar reflectivities over the
southern third of the forecast area. Have raised pops accordingly
and added a rain snow mix mention to the southern tier of zones.
Made some other minor adjustments too.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Stacked low over the southeast corner of North Dakota will gradually
weaken and slide eastward across central Minnesota today, lifting
into northern Wisconsin on Wednesday. As this occurs, cooler air
will wrap around the low with surface winds shifting from mainly out
of the south today to out of the north on Wednesday. A frontal zone
will consolidate north of the Iron Range today leading to an
increased chance for rain towards the international border, while to
the south a broad dry slot evident on water vapor channel satellite
imagery will persist through the day, leaving areas south of the Iron
Range generally dry through today. As the low traverses east across
central Minnesota tonight into Wednesday, there will be a broad area
with a chance for rain/snow showers...mainly snow overnight
transitioning to a rain/snow mix during the day Wednesday due to
temperatures in the 30s.  Around an inch of snow possible for parts
of northern Minnesota where the band of broad lift will pivot around
today into tonight, but otherwise less than an inch of snow expected
through Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The area of sfc low pressure that has been responsible for the rain
showers we experienced Monday will eventually move out of the area
early Thursday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in a northwesterly
flow regime, along with a tightening sfc pressure gradient. A lobe
of 500 mb positive vorticity advection is progged to sweep through
during the day Thursday, which could generate a small chance of
snow, but the GFS/NAM model soundings look pessimistic with column
moisture, so chances of snow may stay exclusive to the morning when
there is at least some saturation in the dendritic growth zone. I
did add slight chances of a flurry Thursday and Friday to most of
the forecast area due to strong 850 mb cold air advection shown on
the synoptic models as the low departs.

Chances of lake enhanced snow is possible Thursday afternoon through
Friday night for northwest and north-central Wisconsin as the
northwest flow regime continues. GFS/NAM guidance indicates
sufficient moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer, along with enhanced
1000-850 mb isentropic lift, with values up to -5 ubar/s in this
area. Delta-T values between the Lake Superior and 850 mb temps are
within the desired range for lake enhancement, with delta-Ts of 11
to 13 degrees C.

Beyond Saturday, looks like off-and-on chances of snow are possible
Sunday through Tuesday morning as a series of mid-level shortwaves
moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A large low pressure system will remain largely in place across
the Northland throughout the TAF period. Rain showers this
morning are expected to stay along the north and western portions
of the forecast area as the low pressure pivots across the region.
Low stratus and some reduced vsbys are expected through the day
today, with a mix of mainly IFR and LIFR cigs and vsbys. We could
see a bit of an improvement this afternoon in vsbys, especially in
the HYR and DLH areas, but might stay MVFR/IFR at the other
sites. A mix of rain/snow is expected to develop Tuesday evening,
transitioning to all snow overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  33  37  29 /  10  40  50  40
INL  38  32  36  28 /  90  60  50  30
BRD  38  32  37  30 /  60  40  40  40
HYR  37  32  39  31 /  60  30  60  50
ASX  40  34  40  32 /   0  20  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...JTS



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