Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 280900
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. A
SURFACE LOW IS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA....WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM IT UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND UP INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING...SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH AND BRINGS IN COLDER
AND DRIER AIR.  FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY STRONGEST TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING THE PRECIPITATION FROM CONVECTION TO
MORE FRONTOGENETICAL TYPE PROCESSES. A NARROW RIBBON OF CAPE VALUES
OF OVER 1000J/KG WILL NOSE UP INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MAINLY NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
UP AROUND 1.25 INCHES...SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY
THAN SEVERE STORMS.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN MINNESOTA.  TONIGHT TO REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60S.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LOWS WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NW WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT REBOUND TO ABOUT 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND COULD GET FROST EARLY SUNDAY.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD BACK TO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

EXPECT GENERAL VFR CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
KEEPS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KHYR... WHICH WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FOG DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VIS AT
KHYR HAS ALREADY DECREASED TO A HALF MILE JUST BEFORE 06Z... SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SITE WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTHLAND AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW... AND WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... AND WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO DELAY THE ONSET AFTER
00Z... BUT MAINTAINED THE INCLUSION OF MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS AT
KDLH/KINL/KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  50  65  41 /  10  80  60   0
INL  79  48  60  35 /  60  70  10   0
BRD  81  58  64  41 /  10  60  40   0
HYR  82  59  69  42 /  10  80  80  20
ASX  80  53  68  41 /  10  70  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







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