Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 131130
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another mild day with temperatures cooling into early next
  week.

- Clipper system to bring a chance for snow/rain Friday night
  into the weekend with lake effect snow becoming more likely
  into early next week.

- Snow accumulations are looking more likely this weekend into
  Monday in the snow belt of the South Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Cooler temperatures are expected today but they will still be
10-20F degrees higher than normal. Skies will be partly to
mostly cloudy and persistent mid-level FGEN and isentropic lift
may lead to some very light precipitation. Area radars showed
some echoes over eastern North Dakota into our southwest zones
early this morning. Observations have not indicated any
precipitation but we did throw some sprinkles in through the day
over portions central to northern Minnesota. Humidity will be
higher today but values will still drop to 25 to 35 percent
across the southern half of the Northland and from 40 to 50
percent across northern Minnesota. Winds will not be as strong
today so fire concerns a a bit lower than yesterday.

An area of low pressure will move to near the Iowa/Missouri
border Thursday morning then it will continue northeast Thursday
into Thursday night passing south of the Northland. There is a
20-30% chance for light rain/snow from east central Minnesota
into parts of northern Wisconsin but amounts will be light.
Gusty northeast winds will occur Thursday, strongest around Lake
Superior. Highs will be cooler and be in the forties.

A better chance for precipitation (light rain/snow) will occur
Friday night into the weekend, with chances highest Friday night
into Saturday and range from 20 to 30% over southern portions of
teh Northland to 40 to 80% over northern Minnesota. The
precipitation will become mainly snow from northwest to
southeast late Friday night into Saturday evening. Consensus
remains that precipitation amounts will be less than a quarter
inch and snow amounts will be light. The precipitation will be
or become showery as colder air and steeper low level lapse
rates move in behind the departing clipper. Much colder air
will move over the region on stronger northerly winds Friday
night into Saturday. 850MB temperatures are forecast as low as
15 to 20C below Sunday night. Chances for lake effect snow will
ramp up Saturday night through Sunday night along the South
Shore. Snow accumulation will be likely and several inches are
looking likely. NBM probabilities indicate chances for 5"+ are
around 40% in the snow belt of Iron County but given the local
nature and that subtle changes in the thermal and wind profiles
have on lake effect snow, they may certainly go up.

Temperatures this weekend will turn quite a bit cooler. Highs
Saturday will be in the mid-thirties to mid-forties but feel
quite a bit colder with northerly winds gusting to 25 to around
35 mph. Highs Sunday will be below normal and range from 25 to
35 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

IFR ceilings have moved across the International Border into
KINL. These low clouds will continue south for a few hours this
morning but should slow then lift back to the north or scour
out through the day. The rest of the region will remain VFR
through most of the period. Low MVFR or IFR ceilings may develop
again tonight over portions of northern Minnesota and around
Lake Superior including the South Shore and Twin Ports. There is
a 30-60% chance for IFR ceilings late tonight, highest in far
northern Minnesota.

Area radars continue to show echoes from southwest Manitoba
through eastern South Dakota into the Brainerd Lakes region.
Surface observations have not shown much hitting the surface yet
except at CYBR which was reporting some light rain. We did add
some sprinkles to the forecast but left the mention out of the
TAFS for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Winds will start out north to northwest at or less than 10 knots
and become onshore through the day but remain less than 15
knots.

As low pressure moves from the Southern Plains northeast toward
the Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday night winds will
ramp up over Lake Superior. A clipper will drop south through
the region Friday night into Saturday keeping winds elevated.
East or northeast winds will occur tonight into Thursday then
they will back to westerly Friday and remain westerly through
Saturday. Conditions will become hazardous, especially for
smaller vessels, and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for
an extended period of time.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde


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