Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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529
FXUS63 KDLH 250506
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1206 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Latest radar shows weak echoes along the North Shore into the Twin
Ports area. Both KTWM and KBFW reporting drizzle and we added a
chance for the evening. Several of the models are picking up on
this and have it for a few hours this evening before deeper dry
air and the low level ridge move in. As temperatures fall some
freezing drizzle may occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The Northland will remain in cool, cloudy north-northeast flow
through at least early this evening. However, much drier flow is
on its way, as evident by the clear skies and large dew point
depressions seen over much of northwest Ontario and northeast
Manitoba closer to the center of an area of high pressure west of
Hudson Bay. This drier flow should help to scatter or begin to
clear out cloud cover tonight into Saturday. However, easterly
flow will develop overnight into Saturday, with strong and gusty
flow off of Lake Superior. This will help maintain low-level cloud
cover closer to the shores of Lake Superior Saturday, so sunshine
may be a bit delayed until later in the afternoon in places like
the North Shore, Duluth, and Ashland. Inland areas of the
Northland should have plenty of sun by the late morning.

Tonight`s lingering cloud cover will help prop up temperatures,
with lows forecast in the middle 20s to upper 20s. Some parts of
the Arrowhead could see teens. The temperatures could be
substantially cooler for inland areas, especially northern
Minnesota, if the skies clear more than anticipated given the
light wind flow away from the Lake. Much of the western Lake
Superior shoreline will only climb to the 30s Saturday because of
the clouds and cool flow from the Lake, but areas well inland,
with the better sunshine, should reach the lower to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The extended period will be relatively quiet with only weak
shortwaves moving through the region with limited moisture. A
shortwave will move affect the region Saturday night and Sunday
with northwest wisconsin and areas most of NE MN a chance for
precipitation. Moisture is limited so chances wil be lower across
most area except in NW WI. Also, with warmer air aloft, there is a
possibility of light freezing rain mixed with the rain and snow
Saturday night and Sunday morning before changing over to all rain
by mid-morning. The shortwave slows pulls out the east Sunday
night and monday morning keeping the chance for of snow, freezing
rain, and snow across mainly NW WI and the north shore.

An ridge builds into the forecast region on Monday and will
dominate the area through Tuesday night keeping the area dry. As
indicated by the previous shift, there are model differences with
the mid week system. The ECMWF and GFS wants to bring
precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday but the Canadian wants
to keep the area dry through friday. Will keep the blended
solution for now with a chance of rain and snow mix wednesday
night with chance of rain on Thursday. There will be continued
chance for a wintry mix Thursday night and chance for light rain
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A surface ridge extended into northern Minnesota from high pressure
centered in far northern Ontario late this evening. The ridge will
remain over the Northland into Saturday but will then be shunted
slightly north as a surface low lifts into the western Illinois
northeast Missouri area by 06Z Sunday. Widespread MVFR and IFR
ceilings tonight will lift in spots through the day Saturday but we
are less optimistic in widespread clearing. Forecast soundings show
the low level moist layer becoming quite thin in spots so we do
think some areas will see the lower ceilings become scattered. There
may be some light drizzle/snow/freezing drizzle over portions of the
Iron Range and Arrowhead tonight but the latest radar was showing
the precipitation was decreasing, similar to what several of the
models have forecast.

MVFR or IFR ceilings will increase in coverage Saturday night as the
low lifts north. There will also be a better chance for
precipitation as the night progresses, especially over northwest
Wisconsin. Precipitation type will be rain or freezing rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  38  28  38 /  40  10  40  40
INL  24  44  24  45 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  28  48  30  44 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  27  46  31  43 /   0  10  40  40
ASX  28  40  29  39 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...GSF



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